Post-open Review

Pre-open surge ensures bullish resolution.

The overnight dip to 2705.50 had stopped short of touching Monday’s pivotal low to avoid putting into play any lower attraction. Already bouncing back into Tuesday’s range up to 2721.25 was creating potential for the probe under its lows being isolated to the overnight. And the Isolation setup’s reward would be to retest yesterday’s 2735.25 highs.

The isolation setup was almost rendered moot as price dipped back down to 2712.00. But a headline saved the setup by triggering an 18-point surge that retested the morning’s 2729.00 bias-up signal. Eking higher attacked yesterday’s 2735.25 highs, and then sliced through them after the open.

Natural resistance at Monday’s 2744.50 gap down is now being tested. Room for noise above it to 2746.75 could be tested, too. But back under 2739.00 would at least back-and-fill back down to 2729.00. A bearish scenario would break lower from there.

Optimism absorbs multiple dips, then is fully rewarded.

The open’s blip-up touched the 2727.75 level I had identified in pre-open comments as likely to be the upper-end of noise. Back under 2725.25 would signal momentum reversing down, which it did, all the way to 2718.25.

And that was just halfway through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Which made its durability suspicious. Especially since the reaction down was still only overlapping yesterday’s 2720.00 cash session close’s support.

Another bounce up to 2727.75 wasn’t surprising, not so much as it not probing higher. That was the first instance of “ineffectual pessimism” which kept alive the potential for fresh highs. And ultimately, after easily triggering the 2722.50 bias-up signal, a fresh high targeting 2730.50 was fulfilled.

And rejected. Consolidating back down to 2720.00-2722.50 is now probing lower to probe the open’s low by 1 point down to 2717.25. Already meeting the bias-up target does make the pattern vulnerable to reversing down, especially since not gapping up high enough already doomed a morning rally to failure.

Thursday’s break resumes after Friday’s detour.

The pre-open bounce from 2739.25 reached 2747.75, greeting the open at 2744.50. A blip-up touched the 2746.25 bias-down target and reversed down hard. How hard? A sell signal triggered under 2744.00 that extended through the opening 15 minutes of volatility down to 2734.50.

Even then, the next lower objective was 2732.00. It was probed down to 2730.50 5 minutes later. Its brief reaction soon collapsed to attack the next lower objective at 2721.00-2722.00 down to 2720.00.

Persistently oversold 3-minute RSI was very convincing to expect the drop to extend. Still oversold, a series of higher lows added credibility to a bounce limit violation, and to a buy signal above 2725.00. Now the buy signal’s 2730.50 target has been met — and probed up to 2732.00.

RSIs just stopped improving into the bounce back to resistance. Still, Nothing requires resuming the decline soon, but any violated pullback limit could be the trigger.

Gap up fails to hold all relevant resistance.

Opening up to 2768.25 was quickly reversed back down through throughout the opening 15 minutes to to 2762.50. Yesterday afternoon’s 2761.50 high was still recovered at that moment, at 9:45. It was being probed by another point a moment later. Regardless, its test was no longer relevant.

Yesterday’s late-morning high at 2763.50 had become more relevant, because the open tested it. Buyers could have conserved their energy instead of expending it above 2763.50 — 5 points above it — but that’s what weak-handed sponsorship does. Apparently, that’s who comprised the reinforcements attracted at that stage, as 2763.50 failed to hold through 10:15.

The session-long rally setup is moot. It wasn’t rejected decisively, so the setup’s resolution won’t necessarily be as bearish as it would have been bullish. Also, bias-up triggered cleanly, although its 2765.50 bias-up target wasn’t exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal. And an attempt to break under the 2759.00 bias-up signal at 10:30 held instead of being invalidated.

So, the rally might resume. Friday morning bias often persists through the noon hour. But that’s as much a held bias-up target as it is a triggered bias-up signal. And breaking back under 2759.00 when the bias environment lapses could resume yesterday’s decline.

Bearish pre-open setup unfolding.

Volatility has infested intraday action. Opening at the 2769.50 bias-down signal began dipping immediately. The drop finally accelerated after working through 2767.00. And now 2656.00 has been probed down to 2650.25.

That’s 35-1/2 points off of the overnight high. The overnight high that had probed above yesterday’s high, and then exited today’s open under the earlier overnight low. That being the bearish setup which essentially dictates trending down this morning, and potentially through tomorrow morning.

Closing today back above 2756.00 would suggest the bearish setup’s influence was done. Currently, a corrective bounce with potential to 2763.50 may be forming. If it succeeds (or gets anywhere close) then its injection of optimism will likely fuel another downleg this afternoon. The near-term bullish scenario would be better-served by remaining pessimistic for longer, without extending much deeper.

Extending much deeper would next target 2738.50. That was in-play briefly after Tuesday’s open. Its test would likely fail ultimately, on the way down to fresh lows at 2731.00-2732.00.