Post-open Review

Early surge meets, holds and rejects resistance.

Post-open weakness had room down to 2753.25 while still being likely to recover to fresh highs. Post-open weakness only touched this morning’s 2757.00 bias-up signal as support, which was deep enough for a buy signal at 2760.00. It triggered quickly and soon extended to fresh highs.

Fresh highs that pierced this morning’s 2766.50 bias-up target by 3 errant ticks. And then reversed down, sharply.

The 2757.00 bias-up signal was overlapped just in-time to invoke the grace period, which triggered late no-bias. Having tested both bias-up parameters, offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters is in-play. So far, that has resulted in a test of 2753.25, which is reacting up sharply.

Is the bias signal’s lateness more relevant than its rejection of both bias-up parameters? Back above 2759.00 would start to signal yes, targeting at least 2764.25. Having at least touched 2759.00, back under 2755.00 would signal the bounce had failed.

A bias signal can be undermined by triggering late. So far as this morning, exiting the bias environment under its 2757.00 bias-up signal would confirm the offsetting test of its 2738.00 and 2726.50 bias-down parameters remains in-play.

Maintaining does not equate to extending.

So, is the Isolation setup still in-play? Yes. Is it any more or less likely to be fulfilled. Less.

Gapping up was maintained through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, but it didn’t extend higher. An initially wide range between 2714-2723 narrowed gradually and slightly through the open, and through the 10:15 bias timing window. Every leg overlapped the 2721.00 bias-up target, but never with any complexity that would qualify as chipping away at resistance.

In other words, the market seems reluctant to rally. But it hasn’t yet collapsed in recognition.

This is a bias-up environment whose target is met and held. The likelihood continues to be against rallying. The bias-up environment could test its 2712.00 bias-up signal as support — it was just attacked to within 3 ticks. Breaking under 2712.00 when the bias environment is lapsing at 11:30 or within 10-15 minutes would be credible for extending down. Breaking under 2701.50 would likely be only a formality. Meanwhile, it’s still a bias-up environment, so trending up is still possible. Exiting the bias environment above 2721.00 would target a retest of yesterday’s 2731.00 high.

Gap up holds on.

The overnight recovery from fresh lows was already stretching the room for noise around resistance. Pre-open testing of the 2710.25 bias-up signal extended sharply post-open. The 2722.75 bias-up target was pierced by 1 tick during the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Remaining above yesterday’s lows for that long completed the Isolation setup.

Already fulfilling the target created the opportunity for launching a new downleg. In fact, fresh post-open lows into the top of the hour tested 2708.00 as support. Choppily overlapping around the 2710.25 bias-up signal ultimately resolved up. Ultimately, not gracefully or relentlessly.

Although already met, the bias-up target was just retested by 1 point up to 2723.75. Although already held, the bias-up target can be exceeded. This is still a bias-up environment. Being a bias-up environment, reactions down have room to test the 2710.25 bias-up signal as support.

It’s too late to reject the Isolation setup. So, reactions down should be absorbed, and the afternoon should extend the recovery — probably into the weekend and possibly out of it. Combined with having met and held the 2701.50 pullback target, a retest of Friday’s highs or higher is likely. By the same token, NOT extending higher this afternoon could become very bearish.

Opening surge reaches resistance.

If this morning were going to rally, then it was going to do it early — if not immediately. Which it did. Downtrending resistance that defined the overnight highs was broken above 2717.75 just minutes before the open. The second minute’s blip-down to 2716.25 was reversed up sharply and relentlessly to 2729.25 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. And that was extended to attack the 2732.00 bias-up target to within 2-3 ticks.

The 2724.50 bias-up signal was touched at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. It was recovered through 10:30 to trigger late bias-up. Its 2732.00 bias-up target is now being probed up to 2734.75.

Pretty powerful stuff. Especially for weak-handed buyers.

Strong-handed buyers would have gapped up above yesterday afternoon’s 2732.25 bias environment high. That was the minimum requirement to invalidate yesterday afternoon’s sellers for having gained traction. So, this morning’s rally is likely temporary. Friday and Tuesday both rallied early and reversed later. Following that pattern today could probe yesterday’s low under 2706.00. And lower.

Exiting this morning’s bias environment above its 2732.00 bias-up target (or above 2737.50 if tested meanwhile) could invalidate the bearish scenario. At least, it would get a benefit of the doubt for extending the bounce.

Open’s rally holds resistance.

The 2709.00 overnight low had recovered to touch this morning’s 2722.00 bias-down target before the open. Dipping to 2713.50 had recovered to greet the open at 2720.50, on the way up to 2732.25. The opening 15 minutes of volatility had trended up, keeping alive potential for a bullish WedEX influence.

The bullish influence seems limited to that opening rally. Trending down through 10:15-10:30 triggered the 2729.75 bias-down signal. Its 2722.00 bias-down target held to avoid renewing the bias-down signal, but this is still a bias-down environment. The 2722.00 bias-down target is being tested down to 2718.00, and up to 2724.50.

Back above 2726.00 would be credible for signaling the post-open dip was absorbed. The minimum reward would be fresh session highs. Meanwhile, there’s risk of probing fresh lows, and the next lower objectives would be to retest the 2709.00 overnight low on the way down to 2701.00.