Post-open Review

Bouncing off of prior lows, instead of breaking them.

The overnight slide down to 2495.00 had bounced up to 2499.00. All of which was retraced to pierce a fresh low. The open was greeted once again at 2495.50 support, for which there is no bullish reason to be revisiting.

But 2495.50 still hasn’t broken lower. The opening 15 minutes ranged back up to 2497.50. So did the next 15 minutes.

Breaking higher avoided triggering the 2496.00 bias-down signal at 10:15, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2503.00 bias-up signal. Already, 2500.00 has been touched. The higher objective remains in-play so long as 2497.00 holds as support.

Not yet extending the suppressed open does keep door open for a bounce.

The open didn’t do anything bullish. It didn’t avoid 2495.50, it didn’t trend up through the open, and it didn’t recover positive territory. Nothing bullish, except delay extending down.

That delay invoked the grace period, since the 2498.00 bias-down signal was still being overlapped at 10:15. It was still being overlapped at 10:30, too, triggering noN-bias.

Not bias-down which would require holding 2498.00 as resistance. Not no-bias, which would have put into play an offsetting test of the 2505.00 bias-up signal. But noN-bias, with no bias influence.

Back above 2499.00 would start to suggest a morning rally underway, regardless of there being no other indication for it. Originating from an unstable base would doom it to failure. Otherwise, back under 2497.00 would target fresh session lows under 2495.50, and potentially an air pocket under 2490.00 and lower.

Aggressive dip holds the range.

Bouncing since Europe’s opens had retraced 61.8% of the overnight slide, hovering there until the open shook price loose. Almost immediately sliding nearly 4 points to test 2501.00 was unable to recover. Then a steeper slide of more than 5 points tested 2497.00.

All of which developed during the first half-hour. Price action since then has ranged choppily under the 2500.00 bias-down signal, which triggered. The 2493.25 bias-down target is in-play.

The opening low was just retested while RSIs made higher lows. Higher oversold lows, which still require a retest despite currently bouncing. The bounce is testing the 2500.00 bias-down signal as resistance, and has room to probe above it without suggesting momentum may be reversing up.

The open’s slides seem to have been knee-jerk reaction to headlines of important announcements to be made by important people, implying escalation of the N. Korea situation. The bounce seems to be in reaction to a headline specifying those announcements would regard sanctions, presumably not anything militaristic.

This sort of behavior is typical for today’s lower volume session. A catalyst can be productive, but only for so long if not followed by another catalyst. And another catalyst is probably the only way today does more than retest yesterday’s 2494.00 low, the 2493.25 bias-down target, or room for noise down to 2490.00.

Open’s blip-up attracts only sellers.

Pre-open action had returned to hovering pessimistically short of probing the 2506.00 high. The opening bar’s spike up to 2507.25 was retraced almost as quickly back down to 2504.75. Another surge back up to 2507.25 was resolved similarly, albeit more slowly. Slower, but more substantially, probing under the pre-open’s range down to 2503.75.

The dip lasted long enough not to trigger the 2507.00 bias-up signal. And having tested it, an offsetting test of the 2498.00 bias-down signal is now in-play.

Normally, gravity would suffice for attracting price to fulfill an offsetting test. Today, ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC events, gravity is competing against anxiousness. Fresh lows aren’t assured, and neither is avoiding another test of the highs — more so if fresh lows haven’t yet been probed before the FOMC.

Opening dip holds.

Ranging narrowly around 2504.00-2505.00 into the open had made a dip to 2502.25-2502.50 compelling for long-entry for another bounce, potentially testing yesterday’s high. The open immediately dipped to 2501.50, and recovered to test the 2503.75 bias-up signal.

2503.75 was still being tested at 10:15 and 10:30 to avoid triggering. This is a noN-bias environment. Not a bias-up with a higher target in-play, and not a no-bias with a lower target in-play. But probing the bias-up signal by 1 point held 2504.75.

How do I know that probing the bias-up signal held? Because its reaction down is retesting the low by 1 tick down to 2501.50.

Although an offsetting test of the 2498.00 bias-down signal isn’t in-play, it’s also not required to hold as support if tested. Reminder #1: There is no “unfinished business above.” Reminder #2: Yesterday’s final bounce may have been sponsored by weak hands. By the way, an FOMC policy statement and quarterly Fed Chair Q&A is tomorrow afternoon.

Recovering the 2505.00 opening print through a relevant window could suggest that sellers aren’t exploiting the opportunity. Otherwise, the opportunity remains intact to exploit.