Post-open Review

Held up through one bias environment, holding up into another.

The open’s surge up to 2506.00 reacted down less than 3 points this morning. And that was recovered almost entirely into the bias environment lapsing. The bullish WedEX is no longer influential.

Attacking this morning’s 2507.00 bias-up target to within 4 ticks all but fulfills it. Regardless, that signal is no longer influential, either.

Reacting again into the noon hour’s 2502.00 low has maintained positive territory throughout. This afternoon’s bias-up signal didn’t trigger, but an opportunity to reverse the trend down wasn’t exploited. So, a fresh session high has become likelier. Similarly, retesting this morning’s high would have greater potential to extend higher.

All of which relies on actually probing a fresh session high. Meanwhile, back under 2500.75 would instead start signaling momentum reversing down.

Open surges straight up.

The 2504.50 overnight high’s reaction down had extended pre-open to touch 2500.00. That was still above Friday’s high. A post-open blip-down retested the pre-open low, piercing this morning’s 2500.25 bias-up signal by 3 ticks. It was recovered almost as quickly

Bouncing back above 2501.50 indicated the slide was reversing back up. The setup had no timing or behavioral requirements, but it was immediate and substantial. Finally hesitating upon touching 2506.00, the surge held up long enough to trigger bias-up.

The 2507.00 bias-up target was attacked to within 4 ticks. Coming within 3 ticks is optimal if not also standard for neutralizing its attraction. But being a new high, we won’t consider it “unfinished business above” if left outstanding.

Meanwhile, the bullish WedEX influence on this morning’s action remains intact. It’s not required to produce constant uptrending, only to absorb and recover any dips. The morning need not end at a high point, so a pullback within the post-open range would still fulfill the signal. Otherwise, a little more complexity to the current pullback would allow another buy signal to form.

Almost a “dry cleaners morning.”

The pre-open attack on 2489.00 nearly tested it as support, and nearly tested it post-open. Both were avoided, and so was an increased likelihood for trending down.

Surging into and out of the open touched 2439.50. Reacting down through the opening 15 minutes of volatility touched 2491.50. A second opportunity to collapse was avoided.

This is a no-bias environment. And having avoided a touch of either of the 2488.75 and 2496.00 bias signal, no offsetting test of the other bias signal is in-play. But testing a bias signal should define that end of the window’s range. Until the bias environment begins lapsing.

Missile threat stirs things up.

The narrow overnight range was supported at 2491.50. It wasn’t hinting at anything happening this morning — not organically. For that, we needed rumors that N. Korea is readying another missile launch. A pre-open plunge extended down to 2487.50.

Bouncing to 2492.00 tested the overnight range’s “higher prior lows.” Its reaction down to 2489.00 was the first post-open test of the pullback range that I described during the pre-open Market Tour. That has been recovered to fresh post-open highs at 2494.25.

That’s also the upper-end of last night’s ranging. So, it’s natural resistance. Not that it can’t be recovered, too, but it’s more difficult. The bias-down signal wasn’t tested post-open, so no offsetting test of its 2496.00 bias-up signal is required. Still, recovering anyway should test the 2500.00-2501.00 area.

Moves stuck within yesterday’s range.

The open greeted the 2489.00 overnight low to within 1 tick. Surging from there to 2492.50 has since extended to within 3 ticks of this morning’s 2494.75 bias-up signal. But it wasn’t touched.

The 2486.50 bias-down signal wasn’t touched, either. This is a no-bias environment, with no required offsetting test in-play.

“Dry cleaners” morning, time better spent running errands? Perhaps. Except that testing the bias-up signal this morning would be vulnerable to launching a deeper downdraft. But there is no predictive price action as of yet.