Post-open Review

Bias-up triggers.

Overnight action had formed a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires intraday retest, and often it is retested the same day. The pre-open pullback was as shallow as possible to still qualify as non-arbitrary. Rallying out of the open would be credible for being briefly productive.

And it was, both productive, and briefly. Touching the 2489.00 bias-up signal as support reacted up sharply to 2493.25 resistance. The 2495.50 bias-up target is in-play, with room up to 2500.00. Then its reaction down fell to 2488.50.

The reactions last stretch came after already triggering the 2489.00 bias-up signal at 10:15,. and it was too late to be invalidated. Back above 2491.75 would signal the rally had resumed

Gap and run creates anchor to absorb reversal attempt.

Sunday night’s open had leap-frogged over the 2465.75 bias-up signal. Its 2472.25 bias-up target was tested as support before the open. Gapping up to 2474.00 resumed the rally, extending relentlessly up to 2481.75.

1-minute RSI had diverged negatively along the way, but only while 3-minute RSI remained “persistently overbought.” Twice. Each setup offered a buying opportunity. Not until 3-minute RSI left oversold territory did the 1-minute RSI’s negative divergence at 2482.00 actually influence price action.

Immediately. Its reaction down was retraced 61.8% of the way back up to 2482.00. The next reaction down has pierced 2479.00.

Still, we’re only looking for a temporary corrective dip. Trending up through the open created an anchor that will want to be retested in case of a pullback. The dip may be done already, although its likely objective is 2477.50, and potentially 2475.00.

July’s ~2484 high basis SPX has been attacked to within a quarter. But not touched. Another sweet spot? It doesn’t require a retest, except for the foregoing reasons described above. We’ll start to think otherwise if the afternoon bias-down signal is triggered.

Open’s dip holds.

The opening print was also this morning’s 2459.25 bias-down signal. It was probed immediately down to 2456.75. And then recovered through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Fluctuating around 2459.25 resolved up through the top of the hour. Enough of that was maintained for long enough to avoid triggering bias-down.

Having held a test of the 2459.25 bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2466.00 bias-up signal
is in-play. Invalidating the no-bias environment can now be done only by exiting it under its 2453.50 bias-down target. Any lesser selling pressure would maintain the higher objective.

So, this morning’s downside risk is essentially gone. Fluctuating sideways and then collapsing this afternoon is still possible. There’s a narrow path higher, which all but requires exiting the noon hour above this morning’s 2466.00 bias-up signal. Any lesser buying pressure would remain vulnerable to reversing back down.

Pre-open recovery loses sponsorship.

Rallying through the ECB events continued ignoring the Globex open’s spike down. The open was greeted 1 tick short of this morning’s 2469.00 bias-up signal, and short of yesterday’s highs. As was suspected, buyers were already expended from the overnight recovery, so that’s as good as it got.

The first reaction down corrected almost entirely. The second reaction down slid to 2460.00-2461.00. The bias-down signal was still being tested at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. Its test was repeated at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias.

RSIs had improved to the point of diverging positively. That didn’t require a bounce, but it bounced. The open is being attacked up to 2467.25. That’s not far from the 2469.00 bias-up signal, despite the noN-bias signal not requiring an offsetting test.

Exiting the bias environment back under 2464.00 would start to signal the bounce was only a temporary correction. Fresh session lows and probably also a new downleg would be likely. Otherwise, entering the noon hour above 2469.00 would be credible for filling the gap back up to Friday’s 2474.00 cash session close.

Bias-up target met, held.

Like the first overnight dip to 2457.50, the second dip was recovered to a higher high, greeting the open at 2465.00. Overnight choppiness has persisted post-open.

A couple of probes higher have reacted back down under the open. The second post-open probe pierced the 2466.75 bias-up target by 1 tick. Its reaction down attacked the 2461.00 bias-up signal to within 1 tick. This is a bias-up environment, whose target has been met.

Already having met and reacted down from the bias-up target, its resistance tends to hold through the morning. It’s not required. Meanwhile, the bias-up signal should define the morning’s lower-end if tested as support. Probing under it would be required to retrace.

So, post-open buyers quickly satisfied buying pressure and aren’t indicating they’ll gain traction for the effort. That’s similar to yesterday afternoon’s buyers. Neither setup prevents extending higher anyway, but not reliably, and the door remains open to launching another downleg.