Post-open Review

Enough fluctuation to suggest wide swings.

The probe above Friday’s 2425.00 high was isolated to the overnight. Only now is 2425.00 even being attacked as resistance, after the open dipped to 2419.25. The setup suggests that buyers are weak-handed and that the pattern will resolve down.

But the open’s tests of Friday’s last relative lows at 2421.50-2422.00 held as support through 9:45. That’s not necessarily bullish, but it robs sellers of their traction. Which explains the post-open bounce attacking 2425.00.

No 3 of the first hour’s 15-minute checkpoints overlapped the same relevant level. A dry cleaners morning isn’t likely. That doesn’t make trending any likelier — especially since neither bias signal was touched. But tests of either 2417.00 or 2426.50 would likely hold, and reverse back into the range. Until the bias environment starts lapsing, when trending become likelier.

Gap up holds resistance.

Last-minute firming greeted the Employment Situation report on a shallow reaction off of 2411.00. Its reaction spiked up and extended to the 2417.25 bias-up target. That was retraced back down to the 2411.75 bias-up signal just before the open.

All of which is too shallow to suggest stronger buyers are offsetting yesterday’s sellers. The trend remains down.

First things, first. This is a bias-up environment. Exceeding the bias-up target through 10:15 would have renewed the bias-up signal next targeting 2425.25. But it held. Still being a bias-up environment, the morning’s rally might extend, despite not being signaled. Regardless, the 2411.75 bias-up signal should define the window’s lower-end if tested as support.

Until the bias environment begins lapsing.

Breaking under 2411.75 after 11:30 would be free to extend down. And likely would. Regardless of the path there, resolving down remains likely so long as 2417.25 isn’t exceeded as the bias environment begins lapsing.

Open’s slide starts satisfying a lot of sellers.

The overnight drop to 2416.00 had formed a Symmetrical Triangle with temporary bounce potential up to 2421.25-2421.50. A pre-open bounce did test it by 2 ticks, and then by a third tick post-open. Then price collapsed for a half-hour.

Recovering 2421.50 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would have been likely also to recover the 2419.00 bias-down target through the bias timing window. But 2421.50 held its test through 9:45, and 2419.00 broke lower through 10:15. The bias-down signal was renewed, next targeting 2411.00.

And 2411.00 was tested at the collapse’s low, pierced by 3 errant ticks while both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs became oversold.

That’s the predictable, and potentially the morning’s low. Bounce potential up to 2417.25 would retrace the open’s Running Correction to its upper-quadrant. Any higher would target fresh post-open highs at 2423.50.

Potential to fresh lows at 2399.00 and possibly 2393.00 depend largely on resuming the decline today. Meanwhile, 2311.00 would suffice as the 2-1/2 week old pullback’s low — which would be more reliable if the low’s oversold RSIs were first retested. Otherwise, any lower would suggest the lower objectives are in-play.

Failed overnight rally attempts attract intraday sellers.

Last night’s choppy ranging was narrower than other windows since Monday’s early close. Firming before the open did attack this morning’s 2430.50 bias-up signal to within 3 ticks. But 2428.00 gave way during the first 3 minutes. And soon Monday morning’s 2418.50 low was being attacked to within 3 ticks.

This is a noN-bias environment. The 2421.50 bias-down signal was overlapped within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the 15-minute grace period. It was overlapped at 10:30 avoid triggering either bias-down or no-bias. There is no requirement to test any specific level.

However, that last leg down was steep, allowing it to stretch the rubber band for bouncing back. The bounce has room up to 2428.00, and currently 2427.00 is being tested.

Support at 2418.50 is barely obligatory, if that. Sliding steeply into it enabled stopping optimistically short of actually testing it. So, all the more reason to expect 2418.50 support to be non-existent if ever tested.

Back under 2423.75 would signal the bounce had ended already. Reversing down would likely trend down to fresh lows at 2399.00 if not also 2393.00. Exiting the bias environment above 2428.00 could marginalize sellers for the day.

Buyers entrenched, threatening to exploit it.

Extending above 2430.00 pre-open enabled gapping up to 2432.00. That extended gradually to 2436.50. Enough of that was maintained through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2440.00.

More so, the gap up trended up through the open. This creates an anchor that can help to attract price up in case of a reaction down. The renewed bias-up target won’t become “unfinished business above” if left outstanding. But the anchor is often recovered.

And there was a reaction down. A quick dip retraced all post-open gains down to 2432.00. An inflection point 1 point higher was probed no deeper than its first 3 minutes — in fact, the first bar probing the the inflection point was the probe’s low.

The dip has been recovered up to 2435.00. Any higher would start to signal the rally is extending again. But back under 2431.75 would signal the dip was becoming something deeper.