Post-open Review

Early enthusiasm turns skittish.

The overnight rally had probed this morning’s 2425.25 bias-up signal up to 2426.75. Its pullback recovered through the open to fresh highs at 2428.25.

But the opening 15 minutes of volatility lapsed while the pre-open high was still being overlapped. Not recovered. Also not rejected, but that came anyway as price slid to 2418.50.

The gap back down to yesterday’s 2416.75 cash session close wasn’t filled. The offsetting test of this morning’s 2414.75 bias-down signal wasn’t fulfilled. And the past half-hour has been fluctuating around unchanged.

A bigger bounce is possible, but lower lows remains likely. And lower lows that aren’t quickly recovered would more likely extednd down through the afternoon.

A lot of selling pressure expended, satisfied.

Yesterday’s open gapped up to 2430.00 and dipped briefly down to 2425.50 before resuming its intraday rally to 2440.50. That is now being retested down to 2426.00, while bobbling up to 2430.50. Will this area launch another rally?

The overnight dip down to 2439.00 was a close-call that avoided reversing into negative territory. But there was no bullish reason for its retest after bouncing. And its bounce bounced a lot, attacking the 2445.00 overnight high.

Opening at 2440.00 quickly slid to test the 2431.50 likely objective. Triggering the 2434.50 bias-down signal put into play its 2428.00 target. And a pattern formed along the way with potential to 2426.25. All were met. And the target was only being overlapped at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down.

A retest of 2426.25 is reacting up through 2431.50 as resistance. Regardless of being probed, it should define the morning’s lower-end. A retest of last night’s highs remains possible before the weekend. Back under 2428.00 would now suggest otherwise, potentially clearing the way to and through yesterday’s 2413.50 overnight lows.

One prior high exceeded, another being tested.

The 2428.00 open extended a couple of points above it, and then reversed to a couple of points below it. Pretty much all during the opening 15 minutes of volatility, and all fluctuating around yesterday afternoon’s 2427.50 last relative high.

Still testing 2427.50 at 9:45 doesn’t equate to rejecting it. It also doesn’t equate to its recovery, but that didn’t prevent extending higher to test yesterday afternoon’s 2431.50 bias environment high. Consolidating there ahead of the EIA report violated the pullback limit down to 2429.00.

The dip to 2429.00 proved to be a false break as EIA triggered a spike up in Crude Oil now almost within a nickel of its target, taking ES to the 2435.50 renewed bias-up target.

This morning’s signaled buying pressure is now fulfilled at 2435.50. Higher prior lows from yesterday morning’s bounce is being tested there. That’s also Monday’s early and late lows, and Friday’s cash session close. It’s a lot of resistance.

Exiting the bias environment back under 2431.50 would signal that this morning’s rally had peaked. Back under 2432.75 would start that leg. Otherwise, room for noise above 2435.50 to 2438.00 is possible — but not likely, and not healthy.

Still holding prior lows.

Last week’s last three sessions had chipped away repeatedly at the gap back to the prior Friday’s 2430.50 close. Once a new relative high was visited, i.e. yesterday’s open, there was no bullish reason ever to revisit 2430.50. Not for backing-and-filling, not for trapping shorts . refueling buyers, and not to resolve some unfinished business.

Yet, 2430.50 is trying to hold again. Testing it overnight could have been isolated by opening above yesterday’s lows, and testing it at the open could have been isolated, too. Neither test was isolated, and the 2433.00 bias-down signal has triggered late.

But a bounce is now filling the gap back up to yesterday’s 2436.25 cash session close. Doing that earlier, and now repeating its test would be bullish. This being the gap’s first test, resolving down remains possible. But not required.

Exiting the bias environment above its 2441.00 bias-up signal would invalidate the bias-down and target new highs. Otherwise, back under 2433.75 would resume the decline.

Higher highs win out over pre-open challenges.

One-way relentless overnight trending is vulnerable to being reversed at the open. Greeting the new week with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme. Ignoring either challenge through the opening 15 minutes of volatility — maintaining the gap, if not also extending it — tends to extend the overnight trend.

That has happened this morning. And it was necessary to rally this morning, after the prior session’s buyers had failed to gain traction for their efforts.

This is also a bias-up renewed environment. The 2443.50 bias-up target was exceeded through 10:15, putting into play 2449.00-2450.00. Any higher would likely also fulfill the only “unfinished business above” at 2454.00.

Back under 2443.00 would start to signal a deeper pullback underway. There’s room down to the 2438.00 bias-up signal without threatening the bias-up environment. Reversing the trend down is now much more difficult this morning. And extended gaps up tend to print their session high in the afternoon.