Post-open Review

Return to the low holds again.

The overnight test of this morning’s 2436.25 bias-up signal had reacted down. More like plunged, retracing the entire overnight rally and touching yesterday’s 2430.00 opening low.

There was still time for another bounce to retrace the plunge’s breakout back to its 2435.00 origin. That rally also broke lower, into and out of the 2433.00 open. Fresh lows tested this morning’s 2428.50 bias-down signal.

That was just the opening 15 minutes of volatility. So, trending to fresh lows created an anchor, which should be retested if the opening trend were not extended immediately.

And the opening trend was not extended immediately.

That delay allowed the bias-down signal to avoid triggering. And having tested it — regardless of already having held a test of the bias-up signal overnight — an offsetting test of the 2436.25 bias-up signal was put into play. It is already fulfilled, up to 2437.50.

Back under 2433.00 would target a retest of overnight lows, if not also to resume the decline. Resuming the decline would have been much more reliable if triggered much earlier. Sellers aren’t marginalized, but they’re hobbled. Soon the bias environment will begin lapsing, and fresh highs up to 2441.75 would be possible.

Choppy ranging around unchanged.

The gap back to Friday’s 2430.50 close is still being tested. It was tested so thoroughly yesterday that its support has been chipped away. So, hesitating here this morning cannot be due to that.  Either the morning doesn’t intend to trend, or else an attraction above must be tested before trending down.

3 of the first hour’s 5 15-minute checkpoints overlapped yesterday’s 2431.25 close. This suggests the morning hasn’t attracted sponsorship for trending. Not in either direction. Also, neither bias signal was touched.

Meanwhile, repeatedly probing an infection point at 2431.25 has failed to break each probe’s 3-4 minute low. This suggests the rubber band must be stretched before snapping back. In either direction.

Both can apply, but more so the latter. Especially now that the 2430.00-2434.00 opening range has broken higher to 2436.25.. The 2437.50 bias-up signal could be tested, and still be vulnerable if not also likely to resolving down.

Recovery attempt is cut short.

Consolidating at the 2434.50 bias-down signal tried trending up without first blipping-down to trap shorts. Perhaps it could have extended higher, we’ll never know. Moments after neutralizing the 2440.75 objective to within 3 ticks, price reversed down sharply.

No prior high recovered, but a low is holding.

Probing under yesterday morning’s low had been contained to within the noon hour. That isolation setup can be very bullish, if extended to recover a prior high. But that didn’t happen.

Yesterday’s last drop filled the gap back down to last Wednesday’s close. That setup can also be very bullish, also if extended to recover a prior high. That didn’t happen, either.

Now last night’s drop has been recovered back above yesterday’s 2434.00 late low. That’s another isolation setup. It can be very bullish, if extended to recover a prior high.The nearest prior high had followed into the futures close up to 2438.00, but it wasn’t recovered. Not for lack of trying — 2438.00 was being tested at the open.

Is “third time a charm” for the isolation setup, or have the prior two setups conditioned Pavlov’s dogs to ignore this one, too?

The 2434.50 bias-down signal did hold as support to trigger no-bias, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2440.75 bias-up signal. That was quite awhile ago.

A blip-up to 2438.00 but not through it could still recover to fulfill the bias parameter. Otherwise, the rubber band will need to be stretched a little tighter, down to 2433.00.

Pre-open dip slides into support.

The 2446.25 open resolved down quickly to resume the pre-open slide. A bounce from 2 points lower was anticipated to resolve down, too. Which it did, testing its 2441.50 objective as the Market Tour recording describes.

Dipping to 2441.50 also satisfied the Running Correction’s retest which had developed during yesterday’s open. It’s lower quadrant was the likely pullback objective for any downleg that might have developed yesterday. None did.

Now the Running Correction’s retest has two likely resolutions. Either extend down to its origin in Friday’s range below, or else resume the rally to new highs. The 2442.75 bias-down signal’s test isn’t offering clarity — it was being tested at both 10:15 AND 10:30 to trigger noN-bias.

An interim bounce up to 2445.00 does suggest resolving up. An offsetting test of the 2449.50 bias-up signal is not in-play. But “unfinished business above” at 2454.00 remains outstanding.

Probing a new high today after having gapped down would form the basis for a Pivot Reversal, which would be triggered by closing lower — the most bearish setup available today. Alternatively, back under 2441.50 would start to signal a deeper pullback underway.