Post-open Review

Unchanged, after overnight and opening dips.

Last night’s dip to test the 2433.50 bias-down signal had reacted up to a fresh post-open high at 2437.50. The open was greeted a little weaker, and a little more weakness touched 2433.50. It held. More than holding, “no-bias” triggered at 10:15, after bouncing already up to 2439.00.

Having held a test of the bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2440.00 bias-up signal is in-play. It should define the morning range’s upper-end if tested during the no-bias environment. Recovering it through 10:30 would invalidate no-bias and be free to trend higher. I would caution against fading a premature break higher, because such things can get carried away at the highs. I might even consider being exposed to the potential for whipsaw by buying it.

Otherwise, trending higher today would be more reliably durable if begun after the bias environment had begun to lapse. Having said that, still not extending higher by noon would be vulnerable to launching a multi-session corrective drop.

Absorbing a reaction down into and out of payrolls.

The overnight retest of the 2435.75 overnight high had touched 2437.25. But only briefly before reacting back down into the range. And then through it in reaction to the Employment Situation report. The 2428.75 overnight low held its pre-open test.

After printing a fresh trend high overnight,  exiting the open under the overnight low essentially reverses momentum down. Actually attempting it and not succeeding can have the opposite effect. Post-open probing under 2428.75 was all too poorly-timed to be sponsored by strong hands.

Buyers aren’t much stronger. They didn’t trigger the 2430.50 bias-up signal, and not for lack of trying. The grace period wasn’t invoked due to 1-tick’s difference when it mattered. Ultimately recovering bias-up through 10:30 invalidated the no-bias. Had the grace period triggered, this would be a late bias-up, targeting 2435.75.

The 2437.25 overnight high is a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires retest intraday, often the same day.  Making it through the noon hour without yet testing it or rejecting the post-open rally could then extend higher into the weekend. Closing negative today would be signaled back under 2429.50.

Gap up’s reaction doesn’t collapse.

Yesterday’s pre-open rally had served to stretch the rubber band for post-open action to snap back down. Gapping up to and through prior highs would have trended up, but not extending higher only collapsed.

Today’s gap up to prior highs had touched the 2416.50 bias-up signal 1 minute before the open. Its reaction down to 2412.75 was retraced entirely, and probed the bias-up signal by 1 point. The test held again, despite this morning’s econ reports disagreeing with yesterday’s, which had been the catalyst to its collapse.

Now, too late to trigger, the 2416.50 bias-up signal has been touched, and not recovered through 10:30. Which doesn’t undermine that an offsetting test of the 2408.00 bias-down signal is in-play. Back under 2413.50 would start to signal that leg underway.

Resuming the decline would also mean fresh lows targeting a test of “lower prior highs” at 2399.00. Anxiousness ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report will inhibit trending attempts more extensive than that, whether up or down. Rallying first, anyway — with only yesterday’s brief dip behind it — isn’t likely to extend, either.

Gap up fails, rubber band snaps back down.

The overnight rally didn’t begin too late to be credible. Its eventual probe above prior highs could have been earlier, but maintaining a gap up above 2415.00 was the main bullish condition. Extending the gap would have made it more reliably bullish.

Despite attacking 2417.00 pre-open, the first half-hour slid sharply back under 2415.00 to 2402.75. Behaviors during the open all but assured extending down. And ultimately, 2408.50‘s support proved to have been thoroughly chipped away, and offered no support along the way down.

Unexpectedly, bias-down did not trigger. Not for lack of trying, being probed by 3 points. But a bounce was testing 2405.75 at both 10:15 and 10:30 to avoid resolving either way. This is a noN-bias environment.

Currently bouncing to 2408.75 with potential to 2412.00, back under 2404.75 would signal the decline has resumed. Although the 2399.00 bias-down target isn’t in-play, coinciding with “lower prior highs” makes its test likely.

Chipping away at the lower-end.

The pre-open dip to 2407.75 had repeated Friday’s pre-open test of Thursday’s gap up. That had bounced before Friday’s open, and today’s pre-open dip bounced, too. A post-open dip to 2408.50 repeated the pattern, but it was the first time the dip and bounce had developed intraday.

The post-open bounce’s likely objective at 2413.00 was tested. The gap back up to Friday’s 2413.75 close (also Thursday’s close) was essentially filled. And held. The bounce left behind tenuous support around 2408.50. And it’s being tested again.

No higher objective or attraction is in-play. And there’s plenty of room below before this morning’s 2505.75 bias-down signal might inhibit sellers. But this is a no-bias environment, so no bias attraction is in-play. Back above 2412.00 would suggest a retest of the range’s upper-end. Otherwise, there’s still potential for a deeper break targeting 2399.00.