Post-open Review

Pre-open dip recovers. Emphasis on “pre-open.”

The overnight dip had retested yesterday’s noon hour low down to its 2410.00 objective. And then lower to 2408.00. Natural support at Thursday’s 2408.50 opening print was leveraged by both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs diverging positively.

The reaction recovered back into yesterday afternoon’s range up to 2413.50. The open’s bobble recovered to attack the 2415.75 bias-up signal within 1 tick. It didn’t trigger, so this is a no-bias environment.

The bias-up signal attack was a little late and a little short, so an offsetting test of the 2404.00 bias-down signal isn’t in-play. Not officially. Not very much unofficially, either, this being a Friday and sponsorship becoming less interested.

But the overnight dip is vulnerable to being retested so long as momentum hasn’t actually reversed up. Which it hasn’t. And overnight action never qualifies as the only bite at the apple. So, almost any break lower would likely probe fresh lows, like this morning’s bias-down signal or lower.

Meanwhile, exiting the bias environment trending up could extend into the afternoon. Don’t forget about the Friday Factors, which can extend a trending effort or fresh session extreme beyond usual constraints.

Gap up’s hesitation resolves higher.

The 2408.50 opening print was at least 4 points above all prior highs. Its reaction down to 2406.00 was still above any prior session’s price action. Instead of a deeper retracement, the reaction consolidated through the opening 15 minutes of volatility.

And then it resolved up.

Exceeding the 2409.50 bias-up target through 10:15 has renewed the bias-up signal. The renewed target is 2415.00, and it was just met to within 2-3 ticks.

Last night’s 2412.50 “new Globex trend extreme” was probed by 1 point. It had required an intraday retest, which is now fulfilled.

Higher highs are possible, if not likely. RSIs had diverged negatively along the way up to 2413.50. But the potentially bearish setup was ignored before extending higher took RSIs back into overbought territory.

Extending higher, or not, the afternoon will be vulnerable to reacting down. Not trending up through the open already undermines the post-open sponsorship. And the impending 3-day weekend inhibits new sponsorship.

Blip-up retraces back into the range.

Trending up this morning all but required gapping up. For starters. The open overlapped yesterday’s highs down to 2399.25 and touched a fresh high at 2400.50. Extending higher would have been credible, but was prevented by reacting down 3 points.

Which made dipping back down to the range’s 2395.00 lows likelier. Probably down to 2393.50. And also an offsetting test of the 2391.00 bias-down signal, having held a test of the 2399.00 bias-up signal.

That barely tested 2397.00 before bouncing again to retest the 2399.00 bias-up signal. Recovering it through 10:30 would have invalidated that it had held at 10:15. Trending up this morning would still be possible, but still not durably without gapping up.

2399.00 wasn’t recovered at 10:30. Still overlapping it  doesn’t qualify for invalidating no-bias. The 2391.00 may be left outstanding to become “unfinished business below.” But potential to briefly probe fresh highs up to 2405.00 can’t be dismissed.

Gap up reacts back down. Which reacts back up.

Yesterday’s rally didn’t gain traction for its efforts. So, gapping up above yesterday’s highs was the only way to rally credibly this morning. Gapping up, and extending.

But the gap up held its test of 2397.00 “higher prior lows” and reacted down.

Natural support was found upon filling the gap back to yesterday’s 2392.50 close. RSIs diverged positively, producing a bounce that failed to recover the 2395.25 bias-up signal.

This is a no-bias environment. Holding a test of the bias-up signal put into play an offsetting test of the 2388.75 bias-down signal.

That objective below is became suspect when the bounce tested the 2395.25 bias-up signal. By 3 ticks. But still overlapping it at 10:30 failed to invalidate what was triggered cleanly and timely at 10:15.

That said, beware of being short above 2396.00, because the bounce’s rejection isn’t optimal. Back under 2394.00 would signal the break lower has resumed.

WedEX missing from open’s surge.

Pre-open firming greeted the open at  the 2385.25 overnight high. The open then surged, quickly retracing back up to Friday’s 2388.00 high. Its retest was likely at some point, and this was early enough for the bearish WedEX influence to re-emerge during the opening 15 minutes.

It didn’t.

Extending higher soon fulfilled Friday afternoon’s 2389.50 bias-up target that had become unfinished business. And it was probed by 5 ticks. This morning’s 2392.00 bias-up target is another 5 ticks higher.

1-minute RSI diverged negatively at the high’s retest. Persistently overbought 3-minute RSI had left overbought territory. But exploiting any bearish potential all but requires breaking back under the 2386.50 bias-up signal by 10:30, reacting down suddenly like Friday afternoon.

That would be late, but it would be vulnerable to the bearish WedEX influence into the noon hour. Otherwise, the rally’s next higher objective would be 2397.00.