Pre-close View

Yesterday’s close(s) being retested, and being resistance.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND. THE POST-CLOSE MARKET WRAP WILL BE EXTENDED TO REVIEW THE BIGGER PICTURE.

This afternoon’s no-bias was entered by dipping to 2129.25-2130.00 and then snapping back up. The rubber band stretch quickly extended to probe the noon hour’s 2133.50 high by 3 ticks. It was too late to trigger bias-up, so the 2133.75 bias-up signal held as resistance.

And held.

Until the bias environment began lapsing, and then the rally resumed. The gap back up to yesterday’s 2135.00 cash session close was filled, and now the 2137.00 futures close is being attacked to within 3 ticks.

Expiration sessions can trend relentlessly from open to close. I’m irritated at (myself for missing) this session being able to do that, when two of the usual elements weren’t present. I would still be cautious as those elements aren’t present, and now natural resistance of unchanged is being tested. If the rally were going to turn positive, then it should extend at a much steeper slope.

Another pullback, another recovery attempt.

The pre-open drop on Draghi’s comments were recovered entirely soon after the open. The mid-morning 14-point plunge was recovered entirely, too. Almost, actually, just 1 point short of the earlier bounce.

Now that recovery has pulled back 8 points, and recovered all but 2 points of it.

None of the drops are gaining traction. Whether they’re trapping shorts depends upon whether a recovery produces fresh highs. So far, only lower and lower highs. Only slightly lower highs, but lower and lower.

And now a new timing window has begun.

There remains potential to rally, just needing to be triggered above 2138.00-2139.75 through a relevant timing window — the only remaining candidate is the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window. The alternative isn’t necessarily to fall, but back under 2134.50 could extend back down to this morning’s 2126.75 low.

Gradual improvement maintaining higher highs.

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All but one timing window today has probed above the prior timing window’s high. The last 60-90 minutes is the one exception. And there’s still 30 minutes remaining.

The afternoon’s bias-up signal triggered, putting into play its 2145.50 bias-up target. Fresh highs during the bias environment ensured it would become “unfinished business above” if not met. It was attacked to within 3 points.

A pullback to 2139.00 is trying to recover, or trying not to extend any deeper. Either way, it’s too late for a downleg to be predictive. And the late hesitation is just enough restrained optimism — if not actually pessimism as during the past couple of days — to keep the contrarian perspective bullish.

Holding a test of “higher prior lows.”

This afternoon’s 2122.00 bias-up signal triggered late. But it’s 2127.75 bias-up target was soon tested on the way up to 2130.00. A symmetrical triangle formed while the bias environment was lapsing, and it broke higher to 2132.00.

Symmetrical triangles tend often to break falsely in one direction and reverse more substantially in the opposite direction. Overbought RSIs at the high allowed price to trend down. But so far, only 2127.00 is being tested. That’s not yet a “more substantial” reversal.

Back above 2131.00 would suggest trending up overnight. Today’s recovery did gain traction for its efforts by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, and then entering the final hour higher. Its reward is to trend up after tomorrow’s open, but that could be fulfilled regardless of trending back down into the close.

Relentless drop finds a bid.

Extending down to and through the afternoon’s 2125.25 bias-down target to 2121.75 has been recovered back up to 2131.00. That was this afternoon’s bias-down signal, which officially did not trigger, making the probe under it “no-bias trending” that required being recovered.

That was officially, although it was by the grace of a single tick, which had disappeared one minute later. One tick, one minute earlier would have been noN-bias, which often retraces the bias signal, anyway.

Now the position-squaring window is opening at 3:37-3:52. And a bounce just neutralized a possible upside attraction. Left outstanding below is oversold RSIs. Back under 2127.25 could trigger another downleg to fresh session lows. Otherwise, extending the bounce would next target 2136.00.