Pre-close View

Corrective bounce may be complete.

The 2095.00 target’s break puts into play one more objective at 2082.00. It’s substantially lower, so it wasn’t likely to be met in one effort. In fact, support at 2091.00 was very influential, launching a bounce to 2103.00.

Breaking under 2098.00 would resume the decline. Breaking lower is likely since the bounce leg was the first reaction up from the previous trend’s extreme, and has corrected only 50%. Also, simultaneously oversold RSIs at the low require a retest.

Currently a bounce is attacking 2102.00. Its recovery could quickly become a wildfire of short-squeezing. Regardless, retesting today’s low and resuming the decline remains likely, whether or not done today.

Firming off of support.

This morning’s 2120.00 low was retested by 1 point. But it is getting a little late to break out from the range. And final hour wasn’t entered any lower than the bias environment range, despite exiting the bias environment under the noon hour’s low.

So, corrective bounce potential up to 2124.25-2125.00 is in-play. A bounce is still likely to resolve down, although that lateness again makes it difficult. Stopping short of its bounce potential might be the only path down today.

This morning’s original low developed over 5-10 minutes, but its retest lasted 45 minutes — not much of a rejection. But still likely to resolve down after a bounce. And there’s really no bullish reason to retest the morning’s low, since its bounce was already productive. So, any bounce is likely only temporary, whether or not resolving down today.

Mid-day bounce is faltering.

this morning’s 2126.75 low held. The interim bounce up to 2136.50 peaked during the noon hour. The bias environment ranged sideways. But the last 60-90 minutes have so far trended down.

Oversold RSIs at the low required an eventual retest. It was just retested, but RSIs are oversold again to prevent neutralizing the attraction. Back above 2131.00 would start to signal another detour, but otherwise fresh lows are likely to test 2122.50.

Fresh lows this morning or earlier this afternoon would have been likely to trigger the domino effect targeting 2118.00 and lower. That’s still possible, but less likely for having resumed downtrending this late in the day.

Positive territory being contemplated again.

Reacting down from 2140.00 fulfilled the minimum required pullback to this morning’s 2133.50 bias-down signal. For good measure, the 10:20 2129.00 print was also retraced, along with the morning’s 2127.75 bias-down target.

2127.75 is also this afternoon’s bias-down target. Probing under this afternoon’s 2132.50 bias-down signal during its no-bias environment required a recovery, too. And for good measure, its 2134.25 1:20 print was also retraced.

Overbought RSIs at the 2140.00 high require an eventual retest. There’s no requirement to retest it today. But the position-squaring window is now opening at 3:37, and testing 2134.25 should launch another upleg without delay if the high will be retested today.

Another downleg isn’t likely, not today. But back under 2131.50 would start to suggest that is the market’s intent.

Sellers on threshold of gaining traction.

The bias environment firmed off of its 2137.50 bias-down signal to come within 3 ticks of the of 2141.25, neutralizing its required test. Reversing back down probed under the noon hour’s low a little too late to gain traction. But entering the final hour under the bias environment’s low did.

It’s interesting that the 3:10-3:20 proxy window was in position to confirm the traction, but did not. Fresh lows coming out of the window would have likely tumbled into the close.

The alternative isn’t necessary, although back above 2138.25 could produce fresh afternoon highs before the close. And the only “unfinished business” is above at 2148.00.