Pre-close View

Rally hovering just under highs.

Post-open rallying through this morning was derailed by such substantial selling pressure that it reversed down from being up 18 points at 2178.50. The reversal down was so substantial that both bias-up parameters were rejected, and the bias-down signal was almost triggered, too.

But the reversal proved no more durable than the post-open surge. Perhaps less so. The 30-point point plunge to 2147.75 was substantial. Its abrupt origin and its steep slope were dramatic. But it was never actually productive, since it barely touched Wednesday afternoon’s low. And it wasn’t durable, since it recovered all but 3 points to the 2175.50 afternoon’s high.

None of which is being exploited. The position-squaring window is being greeted 10 points off of the recovery high, back down at the 2165.00 afternoon lows. Extending down would target a test of 2160.00, if not also an attack on 2154.00. Otherwise, back above 2168.75 could resume the rally to fresh session highs.

Still probing fresh session highs.

The next higher objective of 2160.00 was tested minutes before noon. Its reaction down to 2146.25 formed an Ascending Triangle that contained two timing windows of price action.

This afternoon’s no-bias environment resolved up when the bias environment began lapsing. That was still overlapping the noon hour’s 2156.25 high. But the final hour was entered above the bias environment’s 2159.00 high. And the 3:10-3:20 timing window trended up to fresh session highs.

That’s traction, in a setup which tends to play-out the same day. Back under 2161.75 would start to signal a corrective dip underway instead. Otherwise, the balance of the session should essentially trend up. The next higher objective is essentially 2180.00.

Afternoon pullback could be done.

Rallying above yesterday’s highs before late-afternoon today was unlikely without gapping up. Rallying without gapping up is likely to reverse down. As of late-afternoon, rallying 13 points above yesterday’s 2130.00 high has been retraced entirely, to 2130.00.

The impatience should also have a punitive consequence that retraces back into negative territory. Back under 2131.75 would target 2127.75. It was this afternoon’s bias-down signal, but doesn’t require being tested. Its break would target 2121.25 and potentially 2113.50.

Back above 2136.25 could avoid any punitive damage, and would start to signal a retest of the 2143.25 high probably up to 2145.75.

Final window is dipping.

Each timing window of a session-long rally tends to probe its prior timing window’s high. There’s usually one exception. The likeliest candidate was the noon hour, but that wasn’t it. It seems to be the second likeliest candidate, which is the final 60-90 minutes..

The noon hour and bias environment each probed their prior timing window by a single tick, attacking 2125.00. That’s a single tick more than the final 60-90 minutes, which has slid to 2119.50.

A pullback’s objective is at least 2118.25, if not also 2113.50. Testing either would still not reverse the trend back down. And if the session-long influence remains intact — its influence today possibly being more coincidental — then tomorrow morning should recover to probe above today’s highs.

Fresh highs would next target 2134.00 and possibly 2138.00. Simply sliding into another downleg is possible, albeit unlikely after today’s rally.

Fresh lows stuck under prior highs.

The noon hour’s consolidation above 2097.00 started breaking lower coming out of the noon hour. Bouncing off of 2092.00 blipped up to 2097.00 in reaction to the FOMC statement. Blipping-up then blapped down, aggressively, to 2087.25.

That fulfilled the 2088.00 bias-down target. And a steep recovery from there exited the bias environment back above its 2093.50 bias-down signal to attack 2100.00. Now 2093.50 is being retested at the final hour’s entry.

Oversold RSIs at the 2087.25 low require an eventual retest, probably down to 2082.00, with room down to 2077.50. Unless 2098.00 were recovered quickly, extending above 2100.00 through the 3:10-3:20 timing window, the low’s retest is likely.