Pre-close View

Hovering above all prior highs.

This morning’s upside momentum was only barely violated by 2-3 ticks. This afternoon’s bias-up was not invalidated. Its 2199.50 bias-up target has become “unfinished business above.”

While the open was unlikely to sit still, whether that meant reversing down or extending higher, that’s no longer the case today. The balance of the session may continue hovering at or above the 2192.00 resistance.

2192.00 had been the room for noise above 2185.00-2186.00. It has been probed only once, with only a little complexity. Closing under 2192.00 would not be enough to indicate it held — the close must also finish under 2185.00-2186.00.

Otherwise, the rally will have entrenched itself. And pullback, or not, the next higher objective at 2220.00 would be in-play.

Target met, and action stopped.

The noon hour’s test of the 2185.00-2186.00 target was reversed quickly, and ultimately down to 2180.50.

Greeting tomorrow’s session from closing under 2180.00 would be optimal for the afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence. Closing higher today wouldn’t prevent afternoon weakness tomorrow, but it would likely limit it.

Meanwhile, back above 2184.25 today would make the high’s retest likely. And there’s probably too little time for that to reverse back under 2180.00.

Choppy range has a small opening to rally.

The overnight drop had tested yesterday morning’s 2169.50 lower prior highs, and bounced. Testing 2169.50 post-open, too, would have been preferable, and probably would have produced a recovery. Instead, the post-open bounce reversed down from 2176.25 to retest 2169.50.

The afternoon’s no-bias environment was unremarkable, but it has lapsed. And now the final hour has been entered, above the bias environment’s high at 2174.00. Trending up through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window to 2175.75 is signaling that buyers gained traction.

Upside traction, after sellers failed through multiple timing windows to leverage a gap down into anything deeper.

So, I’m still giving an upside resolution the benefit of the doubt. That’s still likely to be only a temporary upside resolution, thanks to the two-day pattern. I’ll describe that during today’s post-market Wrap, along with the WedEX indicator.

Bias environment exits into a rally.

All of those ongoing overnight and morning highs stopping short of each other — with a couple of shallow afternoon bounces, too — were building the bullishness from a  contrarian perspective. Their retest wasn’t required, and a retest wasn’t required within a specific time frame. But sellers weren’t gaining traction.

This morning’s gap up wasn’t necessarily maintained without dipping to test yesterday afternoon’s low. That only opened a template that would delay the rally until the final 60-90 minutes.

In fact, fresh highs as the afternoon’s no-bias environment came within view of lapsing (actually starting just 2-3 minutes early) have extended up to 2177.25. Thursday’s post-open high had stopped pessimistically short of touching Wednesday night’s 2180.50 high. And now its retest is slightly likelier than not to also visit 2185.00-2186.00.

Meanwhile, the rally has gained traction. This afternoon’s bias environment began lapsing above the noon hour’s high, and the final hour was entered higher. If not rewarded by extending higher through the close, then trending up tomorrow morning would be likely. Otherwise, back under 2173.50 would start to signal at least a pullback underway targeting 2169.50-2170.50.

Inside day hasn’t been shaken.

This morning’s dip didn’t touch yesterday’s low, making today — so far — an “inside day.” This is a holiday, and now Friday afternoon. Sponsorship for trending isn’t likely to suddenly appear.

Still, the final hour’s entry was under the bias environment’s low. Trending down to fresh afternoon lows through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would be credible for extending down through the close.

Otherwise, fresh post-open highs would be difficult before the close.