Pre-close View

Well-timed fresh highs.

The lower-end of the range’s return to the range’s upper-end has extended back up to prior highs. That includes the “anchor” which had formed at last Wednesday’s open. It was all but required to be retested, at least back to its 2210.25 open.

While the attraction above is being neutralized, upside momentum is being confirmed. The bias environment began lapsing above the noon hour’s high, and the final hour was entered higher. Except for one of two exceptions forming, tomorrow morning is likely to trend higher.

Currently, a 2-point reaction down is testing the noon hour’s highs as support. Almost any lower would likely also visit 2206.50, if not also 2204.25. All of which would maintain this afternoon’s traction to allow trending up in the morning, instead of inverting for a much deeper pullback.

Pullback has held support.

Extending the overnight rally had tested and retested this morning’s 2207.75 renewed bias-up target. That’s where the morning’s bias environment was entered. Its reaction down has extended to test and retest this afternoon’s 2199.75 bias-down signal. That’s where the bias environment was exited.

Resolving up is likely, but not necessarily today. Meanwhile, any delay in resolving up is vulnerable to extending the pullback. Extending the pullback would likely recover, but it could be from sharply lower levels.

Currently, a bounce is testing 2203.50, whose recover could launch a new rally leg. Regardless, a hold-long into the close may be contemplated.

Downtrending session trying to recover, or at least to hold.

This morning’s late no-bias had put into play an offsetting test of its 2199.75 bias-down signal. That was just tested as the afternoon bias environment began lapsing. And it was retested after entering the final hour.

Not entering the final hour in rally mode was vulnerable to extending the decline. Indeed, a fresh low did print. But the fresh low was isolated to the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. In fact, the window ended not only back above the prior low, but back above a prior high.

Now momentum is trying to reverse up, which would be confirmed above 2205.50 and 2207.00. Back under 2201.75 would be vulnerable to resuming the decline, or at least ending today’s session at a third consecutive brink — once again needing a gap up to marginalize sellers and avoid extending down to 2187.50.

Dipping into the last window.

This afternoon’s no-bias environment ranged narrowly down to 2205.00, until it began lapsing at 2:30. Then fresh lows gradually ticked down to fresh afternoon lows. An hour later and 5 points lower, now 2200.00 is being attacked.

RSIs are oversold for the first time today. The position-squaring window will open in several minutes. This dip should already be reacting up sharply by then — essentially behaving as if a stretched rubber band is snapping back up.

Otherwise, not reacting up soon, and obviously, would more likely probe under the overnight lows, with potential down to 2187.50.

Having held range’s lower-end, upper-end now attacked.

This morning’s drop back down to yesterday afternoon’s 2192.00 prior lows did hold their test, where at least 1-minute RSI diverged positively. The noon hour’s rally extended to test but not trigger this afternoon’s 2196.75 bias-up signal, which then defined the bias environment’s upper-end.

Now the bias environment has lapsed. The open’s 2198.00-2101.00 opening range is being probed. The 2200.00 opening print is being attacked. This isn’t yet within the 2203.00 overnight high’s orbit, but there’s no bearish reason to have retraced only this much of the reaction down.

The bias environment began lapsing above the noon hour’s high, and the final hour was entered above the bias environment’s high. That’s traction. Depending on the final hour’s pattern, there may still be a setup for a session-long decline. Meanwhile, fresh highs remain likely whether overnight or tomorrow.