Pre-close View

Retracing the noon hour’s slide.

Whatever triggered the noon hour’s 8-point slide from 2143.00, it had follow-through. The noon hour exit was probing fresh lows down to 2133.00, and the bias environment entry was on its way down to 2128.00.

All of which triggered the 2136.00 bias-down signal and fulfilled its 2130.00 target.

An 8-point rally exited the bias environment at its 2136.00 bias-down signal. And the final hour is being entered at 2139.00. That’s still short of the noon hour plunge’s 2143.00 origin, or its potential for just a correction up to 2141.50.

Back under 2135.50 would signal the bounce had ended, likely to close back under 2134.00 and reconfirm the distributive market. But trending up through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window would at least make tomorrow morning likely to retest today’s highs.

No-bias trending retraced to a critical level.

This afternoon’s 2132.25 bias-down signal finally held as support after invoking the grace period. Late no-bias allowed room for noise up to the 2139.75 bias-up signal, which a buy signal above 2134.75 essentially put into play.

The 2139.75 bias-up signal was tested, and then exceeded, with room for noise above it to 2143.50. Its test was overlapped up to 2144.50. Overbought RSIs there require a retest. A dip recovered to within 1 tick of 2144.50. Any higher would have put into play 2149.00, which is “higher prior lows” from Monday afternoon’s rally.

Instead, another dip is now testing the afternoon’s 2139.75 bias-up signal. The probe above it required being retraced, since its timing had made it “no-bias trending.” Often, the bias timing window’s 1:20 pm print is also retraced. And that was the 2132.25 bias-down signal.

The extra retracement under 2139.75 isn’t required. But it’s being attempted now. And despite overbought RSIs at the 2144.50 high requiring a retest, the rally hasn’t gained traction, so at least a corrective dip is possible.

Also relevant will be whether the close is back under 2134.00. Closing above it today won’t (yet) invalidate the two prior sessions having closed under it. But closing under it after having probed above it intraday would help to confirm that sellers remain in control.

NOTE: Please disregard the prior blog post (“Mid-day update”) which was sent in error.

A supporting inflection point was established at 2124.25 coming out of this morning’s bias environment. Multiple tests into the afternoon’s bias environment finally broke lower. No-bias had triggered already, so the afternoon’s 2121.25 bias-down signal was required to define the range’s lower-end.

That didn’t prevent breaking under it to test this morning’s 2115.50 bias-down signal as support. But its timing was “no-bias trending” that required recovering back up to 2121.25. Testing and retesting it has resolved down to fresh lows — under yesterday’s lows to 2112.00.

The 3:10-3:20 proxy window trended down throughout, but only to touch the bias environment’s low. So, it’s not optimal confirmation to the bias environment having lapsed under the noon hour’s low, which the final hour’s entry did not confirm. Nevertheless, this current leg is targeting 2095.00, whether met today or tomorrow (likely today).

Afternoon range seems to be delaying the inevitable.

This afternoon’s 2124.50 late bias-up signal triggered late and attacked its 2130.75 target to within 5 ticks. The 2116.75 had been probed down to 2112.25 where we knew to anticipate obligatory support.

The 17-point rally went above and beyond, but it didn’t alter the bigger picture which still points down. The low has been attacked to within 5 ticks.

That might be all today can offer for predictable patterns. Stopping optimistically short of touching yesterday’s 2110.50 post-open low is likely to be only temporary. Its break would likely slice through Sunday night’s lows to 2095.00.

All of which could still develop today — there’s at least that vulnerability.

Gapping down under 2134.00 and also closing under it keeps alive the trend change pattern that began forming Friday. Not yet confirmed, recovering 2134.00 through tomorrow’s open would undermine it.

No traction gained for today’s bounce.

This afternoon’s bias environment started lapsing above the noon hour’s 2138.00 high. Probing higher wasn’t maintained into the final hour, not enough to confirm the recovery had gained traction. The 3:10-3:20 window was greeted at the high, and still couldn’t confirm by proxy.

None of which prevents extending higher or reversing down. But extending higher would be in the context of a temporary corrective bounce. The 2134.00 bound limit would be recovered, so near-term downside would all but require gapping down sharply Tuesday.

Meanwhile, back under 2147.00 would be credible for extending down already anyway. The reward would be to retrace back under overnight lows, although not necessarily today.