Pre-close View

Probing fresh lows, but only steadily.

Trending down from the noon hour’s consolidation above 2140.00 slid to 2127.00 during the bias environment. The slope was steep, but not capitulative. And that was the decision made by not bouncing out of the noon hour.

The position-squaring window broke lower, but only to 2124.25 where 1-minute RSI is diverging positively. A hold-short is compelling — as compelling as possible for a weekend — so long as 2133.00 isn’t being recovered within 3 minutes of the cash session close at 3:57 ET.

REMINDER: We DO have a Saturday Review this weekend. Details will be sent overnight.

Recovery attempt should fail here, if at all.

Exiting this morning’s bias environment under the open’s low completed a rejection of the interim probe above yesterday’s high. This is a bearish setup, likely to resolve down over the course of several sessions.

The burden of proof is now on buyers to recover the interim probe’s 2186.75 high through the close. Exiting the afternoon bias environment above the noon hour’s 2182.00 high did create potential for buyers to gain traction. Trending up through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window would confirm.

Otherwise, reversing back down under the noon hour’s 2177.50 low is likely this afternoon or tomorrow morning, extending much more substantially into Friday morning.

Window opening to get unstuck from Friday’s range.

The afternoon’s 2183.50 bias-up signal was touched during the noon hour, but not triggered. A sell signal at 2180.50 was touched twice during the bias environment, but also not triggered. The narrow range is persisting into the final hour.

Extending beyond either end of the range through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window would be credible for extending. Probing higher would still be vulnerable to slinghotting back down into the range, if not also through it to fresh lows.

Otherwise, today’s price action should remain within Friday range. Regardless, having failed to gain traction in either direction today, trending tomorrow morning would require gapping open beyond either end of today’s range.

Support bounce gets carried away.

RSIs improved into the noon hour’s test and retest of 2160.00. Its test Friday afternoon had ended a multi-session decline, and launched a substantial corrective bounce. Its retest is vulnerable to extending down, and likely to extend down eventually.

Not today, apparently.

Exiting the bias environment above the noon hour high probing 2166.00 was not confirmed at the final hour entry. The 3:10-3:20 proxy window had probed fresh session highs up to 2169.00, but the bias environment high was still being overlapped at 3:20. No upside traction.

None of which prevents extending higher, anyway. A sell signal at 2163.50 was only touched, expending all available weak-handed selling pressure. Buy signals were triggered, targeting the 2170.75-2171.50 area. It’s being attacked now to within 1 tick, while RSIs diverge negatively.

Presumably, this is not a recovery, but a corrective bounce. And the decline remains vulnerable to resuming without delay, if not likely.

Probing fresh lows but not yet extending.

The 2107.75 bias-down signal had held as support until the bias environment came within view of lapsing. Breaking lower to 2168.50 had an opportunity to extend down. But it has reacted back up to 2171.50 resistance.

Resuming the slide should become a collapse, targeting a retest of Friday’s 2157.50 low and lower to 2141.50. Not exploiting the opportunity isn’t necessarily bullish, but recovering 2173.00 could launch another recovery leg targeting 2188.00.

Whether breaking lower or recovering, Friday afternoon’s low remains influential. The interim reaction up has been only a temporary correction. The correction can still extend, but breaking any lower here would target fresh lows.

This afternoon’s bias environment was exited under the noon hour’s low, but the final hour wasn’t entered lower. Trending down to fresh lows through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window (now opening) would signal that sellers were gaining traction.