Pre-close View

I’m able to do a Market Wrap today, EARLY at 3:03 PM ET.

The morning’s plunge corrected to attack 2168.00 but didn’t reacted down deeply enough to trigger bias-down. So, the afternoon’s 2162.00 bias-down signal defined the bias environment’s lower-end.

Until the 2:30 bias environment lapsing came within view.

Spiking down at 2:15 probed fresh lows at 2157.50.The three-week old gap back to 2160.00 is now being neutralized. More than another point lower under 2156.50 would be likely to tumble into the close.

That’s not much likelier than the alternative, which is to range flat-to-sideways. Back above 2163.50 could even drift higher, with room for noise up to 2171.50.

Target met. Timing window lapsed. Direction down.

This morning’s 2177.00 bias-down target was met at the afternoon bias environment’s low. Its consolidation just broke lower, after entering the final hour.

Entering the final hour under 2177.00 would have been more clearly bearish. Despite probing it now down to 2173.75, it can recover. And closing back above it could launch a rally to new highs. Closing under 2177.00 — and under 2170.75 if touched — would launch a sizable new downleg.

The bias environment was exited under the noon hour’s low, but the final hour’s entry wasn’t lower, so traction isn’t assured. Bouncing into the close cannot be discounted.

Record-setting laps.

Imagine today’s market to be an Olympic swimming pool. Now imagine today’s price action to be an event, like the 400m Medley.

The session has swum laps from side to side — some turns taking a little longer than others, but pretty quickly during each lap. The chart’s legs appears as alternating surges and collapses.

Almost each leg is shorter than the last. They’re converging at the 2180.00 area as the 3:10-3:20 proxy window elapses. The 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window follows closely behind it, and although no trending then is required, it would be credible for extending.

WedEX bullishness playing out.

WedEX’s bullish influence began upon entering the bias environment at 1:20-1:30. Rallying from that window’s ~2176.50 low hasn’t looked back. The final hour’s entry was probing the 2181.25 resistance that had held tests this morning and during the noon hour.

That’s now breaking higher to 2183.00, still more than 1 point under yesterday’s cash session close, and natural resistance. Bullish WedEX doesn’t assure extending through it.

Extending higher today would make bullish WedEX likely also to influence Monday morning. But it wouldn’t prevent gapping down, let alone require gapping up, so hold-long might not be compelling.

Printing fresh afternoon highs.

Resuming yesterday afternoon’s rally was essentially forbidden before this afternoon’s bias environment had lapsed. We’re past that. This morning’s 2184.25 high is now being attacked to within 1 tick.

Although not required, extending higher is possible, and there’s plenty of reward. The bias environment began lapsing above the noon hour’s high, and just needs confirmation that its recovery is gaining traction. The final hour didn’t do it, so the 3:10-3:20 window must extend to even higher highs.

That window is now open. There isn’t necessarily a downside alternative to rallying which would create a sell signal.