Pre-close View

Spending a lot of time at the highs.

As was suspected, the FOMC Minutes hawkish headlines were in contrast to the earlier dovish Fed speaker. So, the rally from 2165.50 up to 2176.75 was corrected, quickly , by a 61.8% retracement down to 2169.75.

That was recovered even more quickly, on the way to fresh session highs attacking 2180.00. In the hour since then, price has ranged narrowly and choppily around 2177.00.

Overbought RSIs at the 2179.75 high require its retest. And at this late stage, retesting the high would be likely to extend. Reversing down from here instead would have room to 2172.50 before suggesting a deeper drop underway.

No unfinished business above, but no reaction.

This morning’s rally extended into noon at 2184.25. Narrow sideways ranging persisted through the noon hour, and also through the afternoon bias environment. Noise around the range came within 2-3 ticks of the 2185.50 unfinished business above, so it is now neutralized.

The bias environment exit was within the noon hour’s range. So was the final hour’s entry, but not before dipping to 2181.25. A fresh low would confirm momentum is reversing down, but the optimal timing has passed already. Back above 2184.25 would become more vulnerable to staging another upleg ahead of the close.

Morning rally reverses down hard from another new high.

Sunday night’s 2183.00 “new Globex trend extreme” had required being tested intraday. This morning’s late bias-up above 2180.00 got there. It was pierced by 2 ticks as the bias environment lapsing came into view.

A different sentiment made itself obvious soon after entering the noon hour. Plunging to 2177.50 was consolidated into the afternoon bias environment, which only trended down. Its 2173.25 bias-down target was effectively met to within 2 ticks at the low.

I had warned during the rally to be aware of the vulnerability to a downdraft like this. The open’s rally was both light and late, and the bigger picture remains vulnerable to rejecting rally efforts.

Done earlier, the downdraft would have likely recovered to produce the outstanding new high close. It’s not too late for that, and it’s still possible, but it’s not as likely.

If the final hour isn’t at least firming to a new high close, then it will be vulnerable to extending the pullback. There’s still plenty to to below, like test 2171.00 and lower.

Backing-and-filling is done. Is rallying resuming?

The noon hour’s touch of this afternoon’s 2178.00 bias-up signal held. Lacking a fresh high, the door opened to a deeper pullback. No one stepped through.

Backing-and-filling into the the bias environment’s exit touched only 2175.00. Another 2-3 ticks lower would have extended the drop another 2-3 points, and possibly lower.

Instead, a surge just touched a fresh high at 2178.50.

The surge began during the 3:10-3:20 timing window. It had reacted back down into the range by 3:20, so there’s no assurance that any new sponsorship will arrive before the close. Regardless, the burden of proof is on sellers,

If sellers don’t arrive soon, then this will be a new trend high close on a Friday. And that would require there being at least an eventual higher close.

SPECIAL NOTE: TODAY’S MARKET WRAP WILL START EARLY, PRE-CLOSE, AT 3:50 PM ET.

Anxiousness ahead of tomorrow morning’s pre-open Employment Situation report had suggested already that the balance of this afternoon would be contained within the range so far. In fact, the noon hour’s high peaked within 3 ticks of the 2164.25 overnight high

The afternoon’s bias environment duplicated yesterday’s behavior, generally. Trending down to 2156.75 bottomed at the bias environment’s 2:30 exit, firming into the final hour’s entry at 2159.00. Weak-handed sellers did not gain traction.

Yesterday that firming extended through a buy signal to target a fresh high. The setup’s counterpart today would be triggered above 2159.75. Meanwhile, holding 2159.00 does leave the door open to dipping deeper today.