Pre-close View

Sideways ranging avoids trending attempts.

Touching this afternoon’s 2156.25 bias-up signal reacted down, but only to within 1 tick of 2151.25 support. And that was as the bias environment began lapsing. Price has since firmed.

Firming is only attacking 2155.00, hardly rallying. But the timing is equally relevant, if not more so, to identifying sponsorship. Strong hands would have exploited there position going into this window. So, bouncing just a little is relatively bullish compared to trending down.

Still, buyers aren’t gaining traction today — the bias environment exit and final hour entry are within the noon hour’s range. But back above 2155.00 would be vulnerable to probing 3-4 points higher.

Retesting either Sunday night’s highs or Tuesday’s lows before the other is no clearer. But gapping up tomorrow would make the high’s retest likelier, first.

Extra selling pressure may have stretched the rubber band.

While retesting 2153.50 was able to include 2147.00-2148.00, its test extended down to 2141.50 coming out of the noon hour.

That extra selling pressure would be bearish, if the extra break were maintained. And it may yet be. But the bias environment bounced up to 2151.50.

The bounce gained no traction. The bias environment exit was still within the noon hour’s range, and the final hour’s entry dipping back into the bias environment’s range. But a squeeze into the close is still possible if the 3:10-3:20 window were to probe higher. That’s not looking good.

Back under 2147.00-2148.00 could resume the decline to test the low’s oversold RSIs, and probably also to trend down into tomorrow’s open. There’s otherwise no requirement to resolve in either direction, and a likelihood to at least test today’s lows before being able to recover.

Corrective bounce ended, decline ready to resume.

The template we discussed before the open has not been invalidated. The open’s slide and the late-morning’s plunge each corrective. One more in terms of price than in duration. The other shallower but lasting longer.

The noon hour’s test of 2160.00 had reacted up 6 points, and now 2160.00 is being retested. There’s no bullish reason for that this late in the session in this pattern. A break lower should be imminent.

Whether met today or tomorrow, the next downleg’s objective is to probe under Thursday’s 2153.50 low. A bigger decline is probably underway, originating with the sentiment extreme that was indicated by the open’s price action. Recovering this afternoon’s 2166.00 highs would suggest otherwise.

Another afternoon rally, and postured for traction.

This afternoon’s no-bias environment probed above its 2161.00 bias-up signal to 2163.00. And then hovered there until the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30.

The bias-up signal held as support, at least to within 2 ticks at the relevant 2161.50 level. So, I’m not regarding the probe as “no-bias trending.” Neither is the subsequent probe, which is now testing 2165.00.

Meanwhile, the bias environment began lapsing above the noon hour’s high. The final hour wasn’t entered any higher, but trending to fresh afternoon highs through the 3:10-3:20 window would signal the rally is gaining traction.

Back under 2161.00 at any time — especially through 3:10-3:20 — would signal another downdraft underway. Otherwise, some bullish resolution remains likely near-term, but that may be inhibited by post-close earnings due from AMZN and GOOG, or tonight’s BOJ disappointment..

FOMC reaction absorbed, not yet reversed.

This afternoon’s 2156.00 bias-down signal triggered noN-bias. That wasn’t the strongest position to greet the FOMC statement. It wasn’t the weakest either. A knee-jerk reaction down to 2152.00 was retraced entirely to 2160.00.

Consolidating there eventually broke higher for 2-3 minutes to attack 2165.00, exiting the bias environment above the noon hour highs. The next consolidation just blipped up to pierce 2165.00 momentarily, 2-3 minutes too late to enter the noon hour above the bias environment high.

The recovery could still extend today, and probably probe this morning’s highs. But its durability would depend on gaining traction by trending up through the 3:10-3:20 timing window now underway.

This is not when the rally should restrain optimism. Not unless it intends only to probe fresh highs shallowly and briefly before reversing down.