Pre-close View

Bouncing off lows hasn’t extended.

This morning’s low had touched the 2056.00 room to probe under the 2058.00 bias-down target. The noon hour’s low had touched this afternoon’s 2055.75 bias-down signal. The no-bias environment attacked its 2161.50 bias-up signal to within 1 tick.

No trending since this morning. Just more of that quicksand.

Last Tuesday’s difficulty with this area wasn’t resolved until a last-minute surge. Don’t be surprised by something similar today, but also don’t rely on it. Its direction isn’t even predictable, since the bias environment exit and final hour entry didn’t gain traction.

Lower and lower lows.

Each of today’s timing windows has probed lower. Relentless intraday trending can be reversed, if the bias environment exit retraces the last timing window’s move.

The bias environment began lapses between 2:30-3:00. Recovering from the 2155.75 low to enter the final hour back above 2161.00 would be rewarded by probing fresh session highs.

Meanwhile, the bias environment began lapsing under the noon hour’s low. Entering the final hour under the bias environment’s 2155.75 low would give sellers traction. And the next lower objective would be the 2148.00 area.

Still hovering at session highs.

The noon hour’s dip to 2157.25 was recovered back to the morning’s 2162.00 high. And no higher. It was touched as the final hour was entered. Its timing only reflects stronger buyers than sellers, which should marginalize sellers, but doesn’t require trending any higher.

Still, higher is where there is unfinished business, at this morning’s 2163.75 bias-up target, and last week’s 2168.00 “new Globex trend extreme.”

The 3:10-3:20 timing window is now probing even higher. That still wouldn’t require any specific behavior before the close, but the greater vulnerability remains up.

Unfinished business below left outstanding.

This afternoon’s 2156.50 bias-down signal triggered. Its 2150.50 bias-down target wasn’t met. The 2156.50 bias-down signal was being tested as resistance as the bias environment lapsed — but it wasn’t being recovered, so its 2150.50 bias-down target becomes “unfinished business below.”

The reaction up wasn’t arbitrary. Touching this morning’s 2153.00 pullback target held. But if that satisfied selling pressure, then the bias-down signal should have been recovered on a timely basis.

The afternoon’s bias-down signal is now being probed at the final hour’s entry. Its reward should be a retest of the 2163.00 post-open highs.  And the reward for that should be to retest the 2168.00 overnight high by at least 1 point.

The unfinished business below will still require being tested. Testing the overnight high first would be likely to hold, and to launch a corrective downleg.

Backing-and-filling can resolve up now, if it wants.

This morning’s drop down to 2139.50 neutralized the attraction below, and reacted up. Bouncing to 2144.00 during the noon hour and to 2145.50 during the afternoon bias environment has extended to greet the final hour testing 2147.25.

That was this afternoon’s bias-up signal. It’s still resistance, but probing it wouldn’t be “no-bias trending” doomed to failure. Probing higher now can run.

Exploiting the opportunity could have marginalized sellers through tomorrow morning. But the final hour wasn’t yet entered above the bias environment’s high. And it’s still being tested.

Retesting the 2152.25 overnight high is the likely reward for absorbing today’s dip. That’s possible now that the last hour has arrived.