Pre-close View
Pre-close View… Waiting for intel on INTC.
Post-close earnings inhibiting trending.
The open’s gap up did extend higher, essentially immunizing the morning from reversing down. The extension peaked at 2097.75, which is 3 ticks below the overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” that requires eventual retest intraday.
Probing negative territory during the open would have trended down sharply for the day. But probing negative territory during the noon hour was easily absorbed, and recovered.
At least, the dip to 2085.00 has been retraced up to 2094.75. Potential for trending to fresh highs seems inhibited. The bias environment’s exit above the noon hour’s high wasn’t confirmed. Perhaps INTC’s post-close earnings news is weighing on the market.
There is nothing distributive about today’s session. Any immediately pullback would be likely to recover. Meanwhile, the rally remains more vulnerable to extending.
Pre-close View… The best is yet to come?
Probing fresh highs at an appropriate time.
Overbought RSIs at the noon hour’s 2087.0 high didn’t require a retest, but they made it difficult to reverse down. Now they’ve been neutralized by fresh session highs by more than 1 point higher.
The no-bias environment is lapsing. Exiting it above all prior timing window highs on a trending session can be even more difficult to reverse down. That doesn’t prevent dips, but it makes buying dips attractive.
Meanwhile, this morning’s upleg can be duplicated on the next run, whether or not today. But that’s the second likeliest scenario compared to simply ranging flat-to-higher.
Pre-close View… Bullish WedEX’d?
Downside momentum absorbed, but not yet reversed.
In Friday, it’s very difficult to reverse from exiting the afternoon’s bias environment beyond all prior intraday timing window extremes. Problematic for a bullish WedEX to absorb, let alone to reverse up.
Today’s bias environment exit narrowly avoided that.
A fresh low had printed 2069.50 just 1 minute away from coming within 10-15 minutes of the bias environment lapsing. That didn’t prevent exiting the bias environment at 2:30 back above an interim high, attacking 2073.00.
That was 25 minutes ago, and the final hour’s entry is just minutes away. Aggressively surging higher would help to confirm the bullish WedEX’s influence — extending to 2074.00, and through 2076.00 during the 3:10-3:20 window would be optimal.
Pre-close View… Steep, shallow slopes don’t last.
Repeatedly rejecting probes of higher highs.
Yesterday afternoon’s buyers gained no traction for their efforts. Extending the rally today before late-afternoon required gapping up. Failing that pre-open attempt doesn’t prevent later attempts; it just causes them to fail.
And they have. The noon hour’s probe above the 2079.50 pre-open high up to 2081.75 was reversed back under yesterday’s 2077.00 high to 2075.25. Its reaction up to 2078.75 was reversed even lower to 2074.50.
But now it’s late-afternoon as the bias environment has begun lapsing. The noon hour’s fresh high makes diving into the close unlikely, without already exiting the bias environment under the morning’s lows. But that’s a vulnerability anyway until recovering yesterday’s 2077.00 high.
Otherwise, recovering yesterday’s 2077.00 high should trend up aggressively to fresh session highs at 2082.25. Not entering the final hour already trending up sharply would remain vulnerable to retesting the overnight low.
Pre-close View… Stretching it thin.
Still rewarding the morning’s buyers.
Exiting this morning’s bias environment above its 2046.50 bias-up target had invalidated any downside objective put into play at 10:15. That doesn’t equate to a buy signal, but the recovery has extended anyway, up to 2058.50.
That’s 30 points above the low. And almost as many points since a reversal. RSIs have been deteriorating, and now a break lower is testing 2054.50. Any lower would target 2051.00 and potentially lower.
There’s otherwise no active pattern. The bias environment exit was AT the noon hour’s high, not above it and not exactly overlapping it. The final hour’s entry was higher, but that’s not enough on its own to reflect traction.