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Maintaining fresh highs could form a hold-long setup.

The FOMC news was a knee-jerk reaction down to 2077.50. Originating between 2081.75-2083.75 made the reaction either way likely to be false. In fact, its reversal recovered 2081.75-2083.75 to signal momentum reversing up. Follow-through extended to 2090.25.

Retracing down to 2083.75 still exited the bias environment above the noon hour’s high. The final hour wasn’t entered higher, but trending up to fresh highs through 3:10-3:20 would confirm the rally is gaining traction.

The rally is at least trying to resume. Fresh highs are being probed up to 2092.25. Potential to 2110.00 remains alive, but just closing above 2095.00 would signal the rally has resumed.

Session’s last window is at same intersection as this morning.

The alternative to not extending this morning’s gap up was to resume the decline. The gap up did extend, just in time to attack its 2091.75 bias-up target to within 3 ticks. The alternative of resuming the became unlikely.

But the bias environment was invalidated back under its 2086.00 bias-up signal. And overnight lows were probed down to this morning’s 2079.75 bias-down signal.

There is no unfinished business below. And none above, either. Fresh afternoon highs above 2086.00 might be inhibited from extending with AAPL’s post-close earnings looming. Back under 2081.75 would target fresh session lows.

Growing proof that the drop was weak-handed.

Only 2 errant ticks pierced this morning’s 2075.50 bias-down target. That’s less relevant than the fact that it held through 11:30. Having originated during a no-bias environment, its 2081.75 bias-down signal required retracement. This “no-bias trending” would have been invalidated if 2075.50 had not held.

2081.75 was retested, along with the 2092.00 10:15 print that is also often retested after no-bias trending. Which leaves one more objective outstanding, this morning’s offsetting test of its 2092.00 bias-up signal.

There’s still risk of reversing down. Oversold RSIs at the 2075.00 low require its eventual retest, but with any particular timing. And this afternoon’s rally leg was launched from a Symmetrical Triangle, a pattern that often breaks falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction.

But momentum is currently pointed up. The afternoon’s rally has been consolidating just under yesterday’s late afternoon highs, pessimism that is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Especially if the 3:10-3:20 timing window were to trend higher, the balance of the session should extend higher, too.

Sellers could still gain traction.

The bias environment’s low fulfilled this afternoon’s 2082.75 bias-down target, which was pierced by 2 ticks. Its reaction up probed back above the bias environment’s 2085.25 low by 2 points, which prevented sellers from gaining traction.

So far. The door is open to a short-squeeze. Signaling a squeeze required entering the final hour above a prior high, not just probing above a higher prior low.

Back under 2084.00 quickly could trend down to fresh session lows through the 3:10-3:20 timing window. And that would do by proxy what the final hour entry avoided. Sellers would gain traction, and tomorrow morning would likely trend down further.

There is no unfinished business below, so the only reason not to rally is because a deeper downleg is underway.

Spoiler alert: I’ve buried the lede.

This afternoon’s 2101.00 bias-up signal didn’t trigger. And it wasn’t exceeded through 1:30 to invalidate the no-bias environment. But it was broken anyway, and price has extended up to 2104.50. This is “no-bias trending,” and it requires being retraced to at least the 2101.00 bias-up signal.

There’s no timing requirement to the retracement, which can happen at any time. But the ongoing series of higher highs and higher lows is trending, so we know that the first reaction down won’t be THE reaction down, but a warning shot. And even that warning shot could be absorbed for higher highs.

Meanwhile, consider the main implication of probing higher highs, which is the long-awaited retest of last year’s last relative high is now being fulfilled. Now consider the context of neutralizing the upside objective, which is being done by a leg that is doomed to failure.

That attraction above is neutralized at 2110.00, another 5 points higher. Not yet neutralizing the attraction below at 2101.00 would be very vulnerable to reversing down sharply. So, even the most bullish scenario should test 2101.00 today or overnight.