Pre-close View

Entering the final hour in rally mode.

The afternoon’s bias environment held its resistance at the 2056.00 bias-up signal. A dip to 2052.00 was largely retraced as the bias environment began lapsing. It was only several ticks, but that little bit of direction at that very important time gave offered a much greater degree of confidence in the upside.

Now the morning’s 2058.75 post-open high has been touched. Reacting to its obligatory resistance has formed a flag-like consolidation there that is now dipping back toward 2056.00.

Resuming the rally would imply that the 2-1/2 week old decline had ended, and that momentum is reversing up. Perhaps not the entire final hour, but much of it, could extend above 2061.00 to attack 2066.00-2068.00. Just trending up to fresh highs through 3:10-3:20 would indicate that tomorrow morning will trend up, too.

There’s otherwise no bullish reason to further delay extending higher. Especially no bullish reason to hold yet another test of 2059.50 — its resistance isn’t being chipped away if not exceeded through a relevant window. If not already underway into the close, then a bearish scenario would start tomorrow aggressively, if not overnight.

Tomorrow’s payrolls report inhibiting attack on the lows.

Triggering this afternoon’s 2047.00 bias-down signal fulfilled its 2042.00 bias-down target to 2039.50, stopping optimistically short of touching yesterday’s low. Bouncing into and out of the bias environment lapsing attacked 2046.00.

Entering the final hour at 2042.00 extended down to 2040.00 before bouncing. Another drop has stopped optimistically short of its prior low.

Optimism can be bearish from a contrarian perspective. Not only in price structure as described above, but also compared to events. And tomorrow morning’s pre-open Employment Situation report is an event.

It’s not unusual for the payrolls report to inhibit volatility the afternoon prior. Maintaining a break in either direction is difficult. Choppy sideways trending through the close wouldn’t be surprising.

Corrective bounce fails to extend.

We already know the context of any bounce is a correction. That was dictated by this morning not compartmentalizing its probes under 2059.50. This morning’s 2048.00 low should be broken on the way down to 2030.00-2035.00, and lower.

None of which precludes a corrective bounce.

So, this afternoon’s 2057.00 bias-up signal triggered — a buy signal had triggered already above 2054.50 — and quickly rallied until coming to within 1 tick of its 2063.50 bias-up target. It held, instead of exiting the bias environment any higher to undermine the bearish context established this morning.

In fact, the bias environment is lapsing back at 2056.00, also a critical level. Until that actually breaks lower, the most bullish development possible would be to probe fresh highs above 2063.50 through the 3:10-3:20 timing window.

Target met. More to come?

Gapping up this morning was the alternative to resuming the Thursday-Friday decline. This morning’s late bias-up let its 2073.00 target become “unfinished business above.” It also became this afternoon’s bias-up target, and it has been met.

Now the afternoon bias environment is lapsing. Still overlapping 2073.00 won’t invalidate the upside momentum, but entering the final hour above it would put into play 2080.00-2081.00.

More so, extending the rally today would be as bullish as if last week’s bounces had ever closed above 2091.00 resistance. Having exited the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, entering the final hour even higher would be helpful confirmation.

Otherwise, until there’s a little complexity back under 2073.00, the nearest sell signal currently is 2069.00.

Straight down since fulfilling this morning’s rally objective.

This afternoon’s 2088.00 bias-down signal triggered. Price action had only slid since fulfilling this morning’s offsetting test of the 2093.75 bias-up signal. It took awhile before actually trending under 2088.00, but the 2083.00 bias-down target was met.

And then some. Fresh post-open lows are attacking 2072.00, potentially targeting 2067.00-2069.00. RSIs are oversold and getting more deeply oversold.

The decline gained traction already by exiting the bias environment under the noon hour’s low, and then entering the final hour under the bias environment’s low. So, absent a stunning recovery by the close, likely to probe lower tomorrow morning.