Pre-close View

Backing-and-filling expanded.

This morning’s retracement had room for noise under its 2053.25 bias-down target to 2050.50. Repeatedly testing 2053.25 never got to 2050.50. But it gave way easily after the afternoon triggered noN-bias, finding an air pocked back down to Monday’s 2044.00 opening lows.

The bias environment exit was probing even lower and has extended down to 2036.75. RSIs diverged positively, and its reaction is testing 2042.50. Extending higher into the close would target 2048.00 and potentially 2050.50. Back under 2039.50 would be a compelling hold-short vulnerable to trend down sharply overnight.

The opportunity to leverage yesterday’s rally has been rejected.. More than a rally, yesterday represented a rejection of a bearish opportunity. Retracing that rejection has re-opened the door to extending the 3-week old decline. Reinstating the recovery would require gapping up Wednesday above 2055.00-2056.00.

Second bias-up target met, and gaining traction.

First a housekeeping note — we’re experiencing a massive power outage, with no known time to resolution. I’m operating off of a charged device’s hot spot, knowing it might not last through the close.

Second, this afternoon’s 2066.75 bias-up target was met at the afternoon bias environment’s high. This morning’ room for noise up to 2058.50 above its  2056.00 bias -up target was met at the morning’s high. So, the bottoming pattern we discussed during this weekend’s Saturday Review seems to be playing out.

Fresh highs this afternoon up to 2068.50 are reacting down and could dip to 2060.00. Regardless, the bias environment was exited above the noon hour’s high and the final hour was entered higher, so the rally is gaining traction.

Sizeable intraday swings have returned.

As the week began, I pointed out the signs of equities and Crude Oil no longer being conjoined at the hips. I’ve pointed out two other examples confirming this since then.

A couple of days ago I began pointing out that enhanced intraday volatility seems to be returning. Those are awesome multi-week periods that can produce multiple double-digit trends intraday.

Like today — trending sharply, on a Friday afternoon, while Crude Oil ranges narrowly… the market is not in a ranging state of mind. The noon hour’s 2057.00 sell signal finally violated a bounce limit above 2045.50. Another sell signal was triggered minutes later under 2046.00 and extended down to 2038.50.

As for the balance of today, the likely bearish scenario was only to probe into last Friday’s range. Last Friday’s range has only been probed, so far. RSIs simultaneously diverged positively at the low, and the final hour’s entry was at or above the bias environment’s low.

But it’s well past time for a short-squeeze to have been signaled, so resuming the decline can’t be discounted. But back above 2044.00 would start to suggest a bounce underway, anyway.

Will today finish as bearishly as it could have been bullish?

Failing to trigger a formed setup can resolve as bearishly as it would have been bullish (or vice versa). A session-long rally had formed this morning without actually exceeding its 2070.00 trigger through the open. So, instead of probing each prior timing window’s high, each prior timing window’s low can be probed.

Regardless, the setup has one exception. It’s usually the noon hour, but today it is the afternoon bias environment. Probing its 2051.25 low need not touch the noon hour’s 2048.50 low.

It’s interesting to know what the afternoon bias environment was doing instead of trending down. This morning’s no-bias trending under its 2058.00 bias-down signal required being retraced. Its 2064.00 10:15 print is often retraced, too, and it was.

Maybe now is a good time to repeat the criticism of this morning’s bullish session-long rally setup. While its 2070.00 trigger had been tested thoroughly pre-open, post-open only attacked it to within 1 tick. Rejecting a post-open test of 2070.00 would be more reliable.

Back under 2059.50 would signal momentum reversing down, potentially under 2051.25. Oversold RSIs at the 2048.50 low require its eventual retest. But entering the final hour above the bias environment’s 2064.00 high (being probed now) would give buyers traction, and we could get an intraday print above 2070.00 after all.

No-bias trending has reached a pivotal point.

After retracing the post-open surge back down to the overnight lows, a Symmetrical Triangle formed between 2069.00-2073.00. It developed through the noon hour before finally breaking lower.

No-bias triggered, but that didn’t prevent “no-bias trending” from extending down. A retracement should touch this afternoon’s 2067.50 bias-down signal, and often also the 1:20 2070.00 print.

Meanwhile, the drop is testing yesterday’s 2062.25 opening low down to 2061.25. This is still an inside day, reacting off of an extreme. Its downward bias tends to be bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Also, Symmetrical Triangle patterns tends initially to break falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. If this afternoon’s break is false, and done, then its reaction would target 2083.50 and 2087.25.

Sellers did gain traction for their efforts — the bias environment was exited under the noon hour’s low, and the final hour was entered lower. But back above 2064.00 (being tested now) is capable of triggering the Symmetrical Triangle’s reversal. Otherwise, support at 2059.50 and 2058.00 could be last defenses against probing last Friday’s lows.