Pre-close View

Bias environment lapsing, so another fresh is likely.

One timing window during a session-long setup tends not to probe the prior window’s extreme. Usually, the noon hour is the exception, but today’s noon hour probed above the morning bias environment’s high. That left either the afternoon bias environment, or the final hour.

It was the afternoon bias environment. Its retracement wasn’t deep, only down to 2070.25, just 4 points off the high. So, if today’s session fulfills the session-long rally properties, then fresh session highs are on their way.

Technically, just probing above 2073.50 would fulfill the requirement, since that is the bias environment’s high. But often, the session-long setup will trend into the close, which keeps alive potential to 2080.50.

Range bound morning, afternoon, and now final hour.

We knew of the potential dry cleaners morning after today’s first half-hour. We knew of the same potential for more narrow ranging this afternoon at 1:20. None of which is relevant during the final hour. Except that today, it is.

A session’s last 60-90 minutes is more about the segue into overnight and the next day. The dry cleaners afternoon doesn’t apply to it.

Except when morning AND afternoon narrow ranging aren’t resolved into the close. Consequently, the next bias environment tends to be another dry cleaners morning.

None of which precludes gapping up or down. But just as it was going to be difficult trending from a standing stop this morning, tomorrow morning it will be difficult trending out of today’s narrow ranging.

Fresh afternoon lows undermining the bullish signal.

It’s WedEX time. And then some.

The noon hour’s shallow pullback from attacking 2056.00 had extended down to 2050.50 before the 1:20 bias timing window. Its reaction up to 2053.25 was reversed to fresh lows at 2047.50.

Just recovering the 2053.25 origin would satisfy this afternoon’s bullish WedEX. And it was attacked to 2052.00. But another downdraft has fallen to 2045.00. Simultaneously oversold RSIs there require its retest.

It’s too late for the WedEX to invert to bearish. But it could simply fail. Back above 2047.50 would start to signal a recovery underway. Otherwise, retesting 2045.00 by more than 2-3 ticks would question the WedEX influence.

Has bias environment bounce expended its buying pressure?

Neither bias signal was touched before triggering no-bias. Probing above the 2033.75 bias-up signal to 2036.25 was borderline “no-bias trending.” Complexity that kept touching 2033.75. Regardless, 2033.75 has been retraced.

Nevertheless, the optimism is impressive. Impressive like the Black Knight‘s bravery in Monty Python and the Holy Grail. Well-meaning, but not successful.

The bias environment’s rally wasn’t a helpful time to be expending buying pressure. It fulfilled corrective bounce limits at 2033.00-2035.00, and the final hour hasn’t extended higher.

Trending up above the 2036.25 afternoon highs through the 3:10-3:20 would be bullish. All the more so, because it is unlikely, since the bias environment already tried and failed. Back under the 2032.00 area would target fresh session lows around 2018.00, presumably on the way to probing under 2000.00.

Overly-optimistic, impatient buying — meet discounted news.

Pre-open lows had only attacked 2035.00 to within 1 tick. The post-open rally had developed from only the slightest fresh low. The morning rally’s steep slope wreaked of impatience, which tends to be bearish from a contrarian perspective.

The morning rally’s 2050.50 objective was met, and still the afternoon bias signal was triggered. Its 2057.75 target was met at the high, just minutes before the FOMC news.

All of that optimism — be it ineffectual, impatient, or just overly — suffered the consequences by plunging to 2030.75.

2030.75 is 1 tick above the Employment Situation report reaction’s low, which is obligatory support. The drop’s 2033.00 support was never probed without also being overlapped. So, a bounce just touched 2043.50.

Simultaneously oversold RSIs at the low require a retest, probably down to 2027.00 if not also to 2025.00. Closing back above 2045.00 is a necessary element to any bullish scenario.