Pre-close View

Still probing fresh highs ahead of oncoming news.

This morning’s no-bias had put into play an offsetting test of it 1986.00 bias-up signal. It was a late signal, so the test wasn’t required. But it was fulfilled anyway.

And still being within the orbit of overnight highs attacking 1988.00, their retest also became likely. That was done by fresh highs testing 1989.50.

Reacting down while entering the final hour overlapped the bias environment’s high. That didn’t help to confirm whether traction was gained by the bias environment’s exit above the noon hour’s high. Fresh highs through the 3:10-3:20 window would still do that.

Good luck with that. Although there remains upside potential to test 1993.00, it’s not required. And sponsorship often becomes paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of the Employment Situation report.

So extending higher is possible, but difficult , if not unlikely. Drifting back down toward or to session lows is likelier.

Sellers absorbed, but not spit back out.

The bias environment began lapsing 2-3 ticks above the noon hour’s high, while a rally leg was already underway, which extended much higher. I’ll give that setup a benefit of the doubt for gaining traction… IF it can confirm.

But despite an interim probe higher, the final hour’s entry was still overlapping the bias environment’s high. And despite recovering back to the session high, the 3:10-3:20 window didn’t extend higher. So, no confirmation.

Probing fresh highs up to 1981.00 is now reacting down 4 points. Its dip can be shallow or deep, but probably not temporary — recovering before the close is unlikely. Ranging sideways at the highs without trending back down does make fresh highs likely eventually.

Powering through the point of vulnerability.

Retesting Friday’s 1968.75 pre-open high had targeted 1971.00 (+/-, probably +). It was pierced by 2 ticks. Then the retest would become vulnerable to reversing down.

But price only reacted temporarily, attacking this afternoon’s 1966.00 bias-up signal as support. Rather than extend down further, a recovery has probed fresh highs attacking 1976.00.

The rally didn’t gain traction for the effort. The bias environment began lapsing within the noon hour’s range to avoid gaining traction. Despite entering the final hour above the bias environment’s high, the 3:10-3:20 window did not confirm.

None of which is a sell signal. Back under 1970.50 is a sell signal. Its targets all lie under Friday’s highs — at least under Friday’s pre-open 1968.75 high and the post-open 1961.00 high, if not also much lower.

Delaying a shallow pullback has led to a deeper one.

This morning’s late rally to fresh highs during a no-bias environment was entirely acceptable, since it held a test of the 1953.00 bias-up signal. But the late rally’s origin interrupted a slingshot pattern that usually probes slightly lower before snapping back sharply in the opposite direction.

This morning’s pattern snapped up sharply, without any slingshot. So, we knew it was doomed to failure. But having tested the 1952.00-1953.00 resistance, I gave it credibility for testing Friday’s 1968.75 pre-open high, too.

Nope. Reacting down from 1956.25 through the noon hour had at least attacked the afternoon’s 1948.00 bias-down signal. But bias-down didn’t trigger. Not at 1:20, and neither did fresh lows invalidate no-bias at 1:30. But the slide resumed and now 1933.00 is being attacked.

Oversold RSIs prevent a durable recovery from here. So does a greater potential to retest 1930.00 intraday. Otherwise, no buy signal can trigger under 1941.00.

Entering the final hour at session highs.

The recovery has extended to test yesterday morning’s 1919.00 low as resistance up to 1921.00. Now that’s being probed up to 1923.00.

Just closing above 1914.00 suggests that the interim selling was absorbed, in-line with the drop being only a temporary correction. Traction would be gained by trending up through the 3:10-3:20 timing window (which just opened), combined with having exited the bias environment above the noon hour’s high.

Occasionally, that traction is rewarded before the close. So, potential remains alive for trending up even more substantially today.