Pre-close View

Probing the range’s lower-end.

After recording to unchanged around 1936.50, the morning’s slide back down to and through the 1924.50 overnight low reached 1918.75. An 8-point reaction up has returned back to the morning’s low, and now finally through it to 1915.75.

That last break came right after entering the final hour. So, too late to gain traction. And the bias environment’s exit, although higher, was within the noon hour’s range.

False break?

Possibly. RSIs diverged positively into a retest of 1915.75. Back  above 1918.50 would start to signal momentum reversing up. Extending above 1921.25 would confirm.

Otherwise, extending lower would next target Friday’s “lower prior highs” down to 1914.00.

Almost no upside attraction outstanding.

Simultaneously overbought RSIs at this morning’s 1943.00 high required a retest. The bias environment  probed it by 3 ticks.

That was a no-bias environment, and probing above its 1941.00 bias-up signal was doomed to failure. Often, the 1:20 bias timing print is retraced, too. And it was, at 1939.00, and lower back down to 1936.00.

Breaking under 1936.00 would have room down to 1927.00 and 1923.00. Otherwise, back above 1938.50 would start to signal a retest underway of session highs like 1946.00 and potentially 1952.00-1953.00.

Having probed January’s high, a top can now begin forming. I would still expect today’s gap up to be retested from below, eventually — either before a durable decline can begin, or on the way to sharply higher highs.

Today’s post-market Wrap is early at 3:45pm ET.

Sellers had an opportunity to take today’s market back down. Back down hard. Back down into yesterday’s range and lower. Sellers tried to take today’s market back down at the open. And they failed.

Pretty much ever since then price has extended higher. The open’s dip touched yesterday’s “lower prior highs” down to 1833.50 and reversed up to within 1 tick of 1855.50. Overbought RSIs there helped a reversal through the noon hour to hold the afternoon’s 1846.00 bias-down signal as support. And now 1860.50 was just touched.

Pretty good, huh?

And that’s what the rally can do with thinning participation, focused on illiquidity ahead of a three-day holiday weekend. Just imagine what it might do when volume returns next week, and more time is available to hold risk…

Yah, just imagine.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: TODAY’S POST-MARKET WRAP BEGINS EARLY AT 3:45PM ET. AND BEING A HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW.

Probing fresh lows caught a bid.

Exiting the morning’s bias environment probing fresh post-open lows stopped short of touching the overnight low. Firming through the noon hour and into the bias environment’s entry triggered no-bias.

The afternoon’s no-bias environment began lapsing back at the morning’s low. And then lower. But only momentarily.

Crude Oil headlines triggered a surge. More than a surge, like Godzilla is more than a lizard. A 27-point move in under a half-hour was attacking the morning’s high. And that has been retraced by 15 points.

Stopping short of this morning’s high is pessimistic. Pessimism at the peak of a 27-point surge seems counter-intuitive, and it is. But if the rally were to restart, then new highs are required.

It’s getting a little late to resume the rally, but the position-squaring window is still coming at 3:37. Catching a wind at its back can reach 1850.00 and higher. Resuming the decline is unlikely today.*

*Famous last words.

At least, it would look that way within such a wide range.

Exiting the bias environment probing the open’s 1855.50 low had an excellent opportunity to dive much deeper. Signals had triggered already from the prior bounce to 1866.00. The rally could have been largely retraced (but probably not reversed).

But bouncing into and out of the noon hour attacked 1872.00. And that’s just a corrective bounce, still well off of the morning’ 1877.75 high. Such is the power of wide ranges.

Now, another dip attacking 1856.00 is stopping short of extending down. Stopping short as much in terms of price, as in terms of time. Entering the final hour under prior lows would have been bearish. Trying, and failing, is not.

Not bearish doesn’t equal bullish. But the balance of the session can attack the upper-end of just this afternoon’s range and still be a substantial rally-like bounce. In fact, the latest reaction up is already attacking 1865.00.

It’s too late to signal a substantial resumption of the recovery. And resuming the decline should be obvious through 3:10-3:20 if it’s in-play.