Pre-close View

Rallying out of the final hour’s lows.

The bias environment exit trended down to fresh lows at 1821.75. The bias environment was not exited above a prior high. The final hour’s entry didn’t recover a prior high. No short-squeeze setup has formed.

Yet, the 3:10-3:20 window rallied to 1839.25.

That shouldn’t happen if the pattern is resolving down today. It’s getting too late both to absorb the bounce and to reject it. Had the rally originated earlier, then the 17-point rally could be 3 times that, and not required to fail. But this late timing is very suspicious.

Meanwhile, RSIs are overbought at the high. So, regardless of the likelihood for ultimately resolving down, reversing down now would be unlikely to extend — not without first retesting the overbought highs.

No-bias trending is extending.

This afternoon’s 1877.00 bias-down signal didn’t trigger at 1:20. But it broke lower anyway to lower and lower lows, eventually testing 1866.00.

Sellers gained no traction for the effort. The bias environment exit was under the noon hour’s low. But the final hour’s entry was still within the bias environment’s range. Barely, and on its way to probing a fresh low, but not by enough when it mattered.

Now a steep 8-point bounce through the 3:10-3:20 window is within 3 points of 1877.00. Regardless of the eventual resolution, the afternoon’s bias-down signal must be tested eventually since its break was premature.

It’s too late for a bounce to be reliable, when Friday afternoon’s bias environment exit is probing fresh session lows. Testing 1877.00, or not, the pattern remains vulnerable to resolving down.

Bias-up environment’s support failed.

The noon hour probed repeatedly above the 1909.25 bias-up signal. Its 1914.00 bias-up target was met by 1:20. It was met again after a dip back down to the bias-up signal.

Being a bias-up environment whose target was already met, trending higher would be more difficult, but not impossible. Not until another dip back to the bias-up signal’s support.

Some support. Despite being likely to define the range’s lower-end, it broken lower. Its break extended to 1899.50 during the bias-environment. It extended a little deeper a little later.

Often, trending away from the likely influences is compensated by a surge in the original direction So, any upside traction could produce fresh afternoon highs. Trending down isn’t likely ahead of tomorrow’s report.

Plunge to new lows recovers into positive territory.

Rejecting tests of one set of bias parameters and exceeding the other set — all by 10:15 — reflects substantial sponsorship. So does extending another 20 points. That’s what this morning’s open did,  from 1910.75 down to 1865.00.

Oversold RSIs at the low require an eventual retest (which would target 1862.75), so we know those sellers aren’t done. But they’ve taken a break, as the afternoon bias environment exit tests 1902.00.

This short-squeeze could be the beginning of a bigger recovery back up to 1924.00 or higher. That, or like the overnight rally, sellers have been refueled for yet another drop to fresh lows.

Back under 1895.00 would start to signal another downleg underway, regardless of how productive it might be before the close. But extending the recovery above 1903.00 would rally through the close.

Targets being tested.

Maintaining the decline had potential to test 1886.00. Just probing under 1890.00 could have started ending the slide, especially considering the timing.

1890.00 was probed by 1 points during the 3:10-3:20 timing window. That doesn’t make one outcome likelier than another. But the probe had retraced back above prior highs when the window closed.

Fresh lows would have resumed the decline. They were attacked, but that has reacted up to 1897.00. It’s too late for a short-squeeze to be signaled, but gravitating higher into the close is now likely.