Pre-close View

Breaking out to the upside again.

The gap back to Friday’s 1931.00 close didn’t require being filled. Filling it after the afternoon’s bias environment exit would a high-risk pattern vulnerable to reversing down sharply — plunging.

Entering the final hour above the bias environment’s high did fill the 1931.00 gap. But the 3:10-3:20 timing window extended to new highs. Extending even higher into the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window has touched 1940.00.

It’s the same pattern, still vulnerable to plunging if a sell signal is triggered. Otherwise, closing above Friday’s 1933.00 high would confirm Friday’s breakout. More so, having probed above Friday’s high, closing under 1924.00 would invalidate the breakout.

Extended target met. And held.

The corrective rally’s 1913.00 objective was never “unfinished business” that required being tested. But its test was likely anyway, so long as no interim reaction down gained traction.

No interim reaction down gained traction.

The same description can be applied to 1924.00. While not required to be met, its test would be likely so long as testing 1913.00 wasn’t reversed.

Testing 1913.00 wasn’t reversed.

Now 1924.00 has been touched. It was tested AFTER the bias environment began lapsing. Its reaction down retraced that entry BEFORE the final hour was entered. That’s isolation.

And it’s potentially reversing momentum down. Unless fresh highs are probed through the 3:10-3:20 timing window, the final hour is now vulnerable to reversing down to 1909.00 and 1906.00.

Fresh highs retraced and reversed.

This morning’s surge into the noon hour had violated pullback limits upon testing 1906.50 and 1910.00. That was likely to end the rally until the FOMC statement.

A pullback to 1898.50 had cleared room for a knee-jerk reaction up on the FOMC news. That only attacked 1910.00 to within 1-2 points before reversing back down as abruptly. And more aggressively.

Sliding to 1865.00 has found support back up to 1877.00. And that could bounce to 1882.00 —  unless tentative support at 1869.25 gives way to 1859.50.

Sellers gained traction, so avoiding lower lows tomorrow morning would require trending back up sharply overnight. The nearest higher objective would remain 1913.00. Regardless of whether 1910.00 comes close enough, it is very shallow compared to the recent range.

Back to the recovery’s original attraction.

Last Wednesday’s stunning intraday reversal had recovered from sharply lower lows testing 1804.00 back up to test 1869.00.

Trying to extend higher Thursday had netted no gain. Friday’s gap up netted no gain through its close, either, after testing 1902.00.

Now this morning’s slide has rejected a noon hour bounce to resume the slide… back down to 1869.00. That’s some recovery, once again no higher than within minutes of at its first close.

Sellers gained traction, making lower lows likely Tuesday, unless the open were to gap up enough. Regardless, no gapping down today still suggests the later selling is counter-trending.

Fresh highs hold, but not necessarily reverse.

The afternoon’s 1895.50 bias-up target was met. Potential to 1898.00 was fulfilled. And the morning’s 1900.25 high was probed, up to 1902.25.

1902.25 was the next higher resistance that we discussed during the pre-market Tour. Exceeding it through a relevant window would have put into play much higher levels. Exiting the bias environment back under 1898.00 has suggested the upside is done.

1985.50 was being tested as support during the bias environment exit, too. It has essentially held, with price fluctuating widely around it. It’s too late to break lower by strong hands. But breaking lower could still trend down into the close.