Pre-close View

Afternoon action glued to yesterday’s high.

Extending down under the afternoon’s 1863.00 bias-down signal touched 1852.00 before snapping back up. The final hour’s entry was testing 1870.00.

Each is well under the noon hour’s 1873.25 low. But not successively lower, so sellers gained no traction. A dip to 1858.00 is now retesting 1870.00 as the position-squaring window opens.

This is also yesterday’s recovery high. Still ranging around it through today’s close is undermining the credibility of yesterday’s rally. A late surge is possible, but its origin would be too late to suggest a bigger bottom is in.

Afternoon bounce has corrected the morning drop.

The decline’s next lowe4r objective was to retest the October 2014 “V” bottom at 1815.00.

1815.00 was tested soon afternoon. Then it was probed down to 1804.25. And then 1815.00 was recovered coming out of the noon hour, recovering both the 1807.00 bias-down target AND the 1813.25 bias-down signal.

The no-bias environment allowed room up to the 1828.00 bias-up signal. No-bias trending probed it up to 1840.00. Now the 1828.00 bias-up signal has been retraced to within 3 ticks.

Was all of that done just to refresh sellers? Recall that the three-week long decline has yet to produce a capitulative  session. Today’s gap and the morning’s extension down don’t qualify without also trending down this afternoon.

Back above 1842.00 could marginalize sellers for the balance of the day. Otherwise, another downleg could get underway to new lows — resuming the decline next targeting 1780.00 (+/- 3 points) and 1750.00.

Fresh session lows sitting on another precipice.

Chipping away at this afternoon’s 1974.75 bias-down target finally gave way. The chart makes clear that it was critical support, as the last leg overlapping it suddenly plunges 13 points.

Plunging through 1865.00-1868.00 ultimately extended to attack 1856.00. Its reaction just touched 1868.00.

Sellers didn’t gain traction for the effort. The bias environment’s exit was definitely under the noon hour’s low, but the final hour’s entry was back within the bias environment’s range. So, we already know that extending down tomorrow would require gapping down.

Not gaining traction doesn’t prevent extending down today, anyway — especially since 1865.00-1868.00 wasn’t recovered through a relevant timing window. Back under 1862.00 would resume the decline under Friday’s 1850.00 low. Back above 1868.75 could form a bigger detour to 1874.75.

Final hour’s entry was almost grudging

Exiting the final hour above 1868.00 would have been bullish. Actually, when the bias environment exit was complete upon entering the final hour, 1868 WAS recovered. And it did follow-through, attacking the morning’s 1881 high.

But being late, and then being aggressive, makes the probe of fresh highs suspicious.

Extending higher gets a benefit of the doubt. But back under 1868 could extend down instead. Sharply, and through the close.

NOTE: THERE IS NO MARKET WRAP TODAY. MONDAY MORNING I’LL ANNOUNCE A SPECIAL SESSION FOR MONDAY EVENING.

Relentless slide has returned to the lows.

Yesterday afternoon’s rally had gained traction, earning it a probe of higher highs. Overnight action did extend substantially higher. If that had sufficed, then the open would have inverted the rally signal.

It didn’t.

A dip did develop after the open, but its recovery was likely because the open had held up. Uh, no. The dip has extended and extended. And extended.

Last night’s 1946.50 high — so close to the next higher objective of 1948.00 — has reversed down steadily and relentlessly. And now also completely, as Monday’s low is being retested to and 3 points through its 1881.00-1885.00 objective.

Any lower into the final hour would be vulnerable to falling sharply into an air pocket 25-40 points lower. This is testing the summer’s prior lows, obligatory support that must influence a bounce now to influence one at all.