Pre-close View

Still hovering at resistance.

The last retest of 2010.00 eventually probed above it, and above this morning’s 2012.50 high, to test 2014.00.

Its reaction down held 2003.00 as support, and then bounced. Back to 2010.00.

Now entering the position-squaring window, and there is still little or nothing reliable about today’s setup. It does have a silver lining — ending the day without trending aggressively in either direction would be likely to trend aggressively tomorrow.

And trending aggressively tomorrow would likely begin by gapping open either above 2016.00 or under 1998.00.

Bias environment lapsing, buyers hesitating.

The bias environment’s entry was a test of its 1996.00 bias-up signal, which did not trigger. The bias environment twice more bounced to test 1996.00, which was too late to trigger.

Now, when trending up is again allowed, the market is scraping fresh afternoon lows attacking 1987.00. My nearest buy signal is triggered above 1993.50. Even it is suspicious at this stage of trending down instead of up.

This morning’s low was as much a product of bottom fishers and knife catchers, as of running out of sellers. Now entering the final hour under the opening print, speculative buyers are likely flattening out, while inhibited sellers are getting more accepting of the new valuations.

Intraday recovery retraced. But, what about reversed?

Perhaps it was nervousness over a fire at a Dubai hotel’s New Year’s celebration that triggered terrorism concerns. It also triggered a 14-point slide that retraced much of this morning’s 18-point rally from the 2039.00 renewed bias-down target up to almost 2055.00.

But was that just a knee-jerk reaction to the news? A later explosion nearby is probably responsible for producing fresh lows — under 2040.25 to 2039.00. Was that just a knee-jerk reaction, too?

Probably. Sellers didn’t gain traction when they could have. Despite exiting the bias environment under the noon hour lows, the final hour wasn’t entered any lower. And that was despite having probed lower in the interim.

Still, another lower low would be credible for extending down to fresh session lows. Oversold RSIs at the 2037.00 low require an eventual retest, and it’s too late for counter-trend sponsorship. But back above 2043.50 would signal instead that the rubber band had stretched too far, and too late, and was snapping back up into the close.

Ranging choppily sideways, not recovering.

The bias environment started by attacking this morning’s low, right back down to its 2061.50 bias-down signal. It held again. No-bias triggered, and the afternoon’s bias environment ranged sideways back up to 2065.75. And back down again.

The bias environment began lapsing within the noon hour’s 2062.25-2065.25 range, so it isn’t predictive. The final hour’s entry is attacking the noon hour’s lower-end. Trending down through the 3:10-3:20 timing window could meltdown into the close.

Otherwise, the nearest buy signal is where it has been all afternoon at 2065.75. If it’s triggered, then it should be triggered aggressively to overcome the lack of any hint it will even be challenged.

Defending fresh highs.

This afternoon’s 2067.25 bias-up signal and 2071.25 bias-up target were approached with the same pessimism we’ve cataloged throughout the day. From a contrarian perspective, that made higher highs likely.

Higher highs up to 2072.75 were consolidated, where pessimism was joined by signs of optimism — blipping up momentarily. A reaction down to 2069.75 has bounced to 2072.00, and any higher could extend the rally.

Similarly, any lower low under 2069.75 would target a little deeper back into the earlier range, potentially deeper.