Pre-close View

Another path higher has come available, momentarily.

Triggering this afternoon’s bias-up signal didn’t delay extending to touch the 2048.50 bias-up target. And touching the 2048.50 bias-up target didn’t delay reacting down.

Having recovered from a fresh low, exiting the afternoon’s bias environment back above the morning’s 2047.00 high would signal a trend reversal. Its objective would be the origin of the fresh low’s leg, which was Thursday’s 2059.75 high.

Sounds bullish.

But the morning’s 2047.00 high was only probed temporarily. Not even testing it would have been more bullish than to test it and NOT exit the bias environment back above it.

There’s still time to rally as the bias environment lapses into the final hour. But not much time, so any valid recovery should be sudden, steep and substantial. Without there being a real recovery attempt, let alone its failure, further downside isn’t likely.

Morning consolidation resolving up. While it still can.

This morning’s reaction down from 2057.00 to 2051.00 ended the bias environment ranging narrowly around the 2054.00 open. Now the market is re-focused on the business at hand as the early close looms.

Volume is evaporating, so no counter-trend sponsorship is stirring, all through the house. Yesterday’s overbought RSIs are now neutralized. The 2058.00-2060.00 objective has been pierced.

There is no afternoon bias parameter or signal. We will conduct a brief post-market Wrap. If I don’t see you there, have a wonderful holiday weekend — the chaRTroom will re-open Sunday night for Globex.

Today’s rally didn’t gain its own traction.

Yesterday’s buyers gained traction for their efforts by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, and for then extending to fresh highs through the 3:10-3:20 timing window. Their reward was to control this morning’s bias environment by probing higher.

They got their reward, but the probing continued. Fresh highs during the noon hour fulfilled the next higher objective at 2053.00. Potential to 2058.00-2060.00 was attacked to within 1 tick during the afternoon’s bias environment.

Buyers didn’t gain traction today, as only the bias environment exit trended. Nevertheless, overbought RSIs at the 2057.75 high requires a retest. An interim pullback to 2051.25 is possible, leaving the retest outstanding. Testing it first would have room up to 2060.00 before the pullback to 2051.25 would be an issue again.

Getting ready to extend the recovery.

Tuesday is a trending session, as timing windows probe other timing windows in the same direction as each other. Exiting the afternoon’s bias environment in the trend’s direction suggests that counter-trend sponsorship is marginalized.

This morning’s late signals had prevented marginalizing sellers. They’re the counter-trend sponsorship. So, this afternoon’s development can be well-rewarded, either by extending the trend higher, or by absorbing a counter-trend dip.

Potentially bearish consequences to extending above 2027.00 that I described previously would still be relevant. Meanwhile, the rubber band can be stretched further to test the 2035.00 area.

A healthier alternative would preserve its buying pressure by dipping next to test 2021.00-2022.50. That doesn’t seem of interest.

Drifting back to session lows.

This morning’s low had essentially filled the gap back to Friday’s cash session close. That could have sufficed to launch a recovery. In, fact, the afternoon’s 2001.75 bias-up signal triggered, and its 2007.50 bias-up target was met.

Instead of extending higher, a reaction down fell under 2004.75 to signal momentum reversing. Fresh lows are likely since the interim bounce off of this morning’s low has proved to be “ineffectual optimism.” So, the morning’s 1995.75 low was just attacked to within 2 points.

But now another bounce is testing 2001.75. Fresh lows are being delayed — perhaps until earlier tomorrow when it’s easier to absorb them and reverse back up.