Pre-close View

Bounces stopping short of anything significant.

Testing the afternoon’s 2070.50 bias-up signal without triggering it kept price range bound  back down to 2066.50. Slightly higher highs since then have barely pierced 2072.00, and then only momentarily.

The bias environment exit was testing the noon hour’s high but not exceeding it. And now the final hour’s entry is within both ranges. There is no momentum, mostly no new momentum, so the greater vulnerability is to another drop.

Another drop would be triggered under 2068.00 (being tested now) and targeting fresh lows under 2062.00. Actually extending down wouldn’t be necessary. Not extending down would then be likely just to range sideways. A last-hour rally isn’t likely.

Pressure of weekend illiquidity giving market the bends.

The open’s failure to recover 2088.00 told us that buyers weren’t retaking control. That’s didn’t prevent a bounce from testing the morning’s 2091.50 bias-down signal as resistance.

The noon hour didn’t extend down. It only touched the afternoon’s 2080.50 bias-down signal. That was recovered up to 2093.75 — back above 2088.00 where another timing window could recover it.

But the afternoon’s bias environment has begun lapsing back at 2088.00. And the bias environment’s 2084.50 low is being attacked. This NOT recovering 2088.00, again. And that’s despite having probed above it, again.

Any lower would all but ensure extending down to 2080.50. And below there could test the 2070.00 area today. Perhaps the last chance to avoid extending down is to enter the final hour above 2088.00, although even that would be suspicious at this stage.

Paralyzed ahead of payrolls.

Fulfilling the bounce potential to 2095.00 into the noon hour made it difficult to attract new sponsorship. So, ranging flat-to-higher through the noon hour gained no traction.

The afternoon’s 2097.50 bias-up signal was tested but not triggered. During the morning, that setup would have put into play an offsetting test of the 2089.50 bias-down signal.

The bias environment drifted lower to fulfill 2089.50 anyway. Entering the final hour under the bias environment’s 2090.00 low could be bearish. Otherwise, there’s no requirement for the balance of the session.

Bias-down rejected, but not reversed.

The 2093.50 bias-down signal triggered cleanly and extended down another 3 points. It was retested at 1:30,  but not recovered, which would have rejected bias-down.

Bias-down still could be rejected, but more expensively, by the bias environment lapsing above the last relative high at 2097.25. It was still being overlapped. Probed, but overlapped.

The last opportunity to reject the bias-down would be entering the final hour above the prior timing window’s high. That printed during the noon hour at 2100.50. It was attacked to within 2 ticks, but not recovered.

So, no relevant level was recovered at a relevant time. But that didn’t prevent price from creeping higher anyway.

Probing above 2100.50 through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would be credible for triggering a short-squeeze. Otherwise, the balance of the session would be undetermined — capable of trending either way, while likelier just to range sideways into the close.

Still probing nailed to the highs.

The bias environment exit was above the noon hour’s high. But neither the final hour’s entry nor the 3:10-3:20 timing window extended higher. The rally isn’t gaining traction for today’s efforts.

But it also isn’t being rejected. Trending sessions that exit the bias environment above all prior timing window extremes tend not to reverse intraday. This doesn’t mean the rally will extend higher, although overbought RSIs at the high do require a retest. But trending back down is difficult.

The high touched this afternoon’s 2110.25 bias-up target, and its immediate reaction violated the pullback limit without delay. So, the most bullish scenario may be limited to ranging sideways into the close.

That said, a temporary corrective pullback to 2104.00 would not undermine the rally. Probing under 2102.00 could be a problem.