Pre-close View

Today’s market Wrap is a half-hour early at 3:30 ET.

This has been an easy session. We haven’t even considered a sell signal since before the morning’s bias environment was within view of lapsing. And then, it would have been only to catch a temporary shallow dip.

The setup has otherwise been fairly obvious, once Friday afternoon’s last relative low at 2076.00 had maintained its recovery. The rally’s 2088.00 objective was a likely attraction. But that was mostly only a formality on the way to retesting Thursday night’s 2094.75 high.

Which is now being probed by more than 3 points to 2098.25.

The origin of today’s rally wasn’t just its initial recovery of 2076.00. And it wasn’t even the immediate rejection of Friday’s last-minute plunge to 2069.50.

Extending down overnight to the morning’s 2064.50 bias-down target had the effect of fulfilling a lot of selling pressure. Recovering its 2071.00 bias-down signal had the effect of trapping it.

I note this origin because it is important to keep track of its sponsorship. Thursday’s highs aren’t being retested during a consolidation that developed upon its first reaction as stragglers bought in. To the contrary, Thursday’s highs are being retested by new sponsorship.

Today’s rally is not an extension — it is its own entity and it has yet to be corrected. Meanwhile, it is gaining traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high and now also entering the final hour even higher. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are overbought simultaneously.

There is no requirement for a pre-close pullback, only the vulnerability. But gaining traction suggests either extending higher overnight, or else probing higher tomorrow morning.

Air pocket plunges to fresh session lows.

This afternoon’s 2084.50 bias-up signal was invalidated. It was productive after 1:20, all the way up to 2088.25. But the signal’s last relative low at 2082.50 was retraced as the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30. There is no unfinished business above.

The retracement was part of the air pocket described in the prior blog post. Triggered under the 2084.00 area, its follow-through has barely hesitated on the way to probing fresh session lows.

That probe has come within 2-3 ticks of fulfilling this morning’s “unfinished business below” at its 2075.50 bias-down target. Meanwhile, 1-minute RSI diverged positively. There is no unfinished business bellow.

Trending down to fresh session lows through the 3:10-3:20 timing window could be very bearish for next week. Otherwise, drifting higher into the close would not have any predictive value.

Early Market Wrap at 3:30pm ET.

Today’s Market Wrap will be a half-hour early, before the close, at 3:30pm ET.

One prior recording link has finally arrived, if you’re still interested: Wednesday post-close Wrap. [Today’s pre-open Tour is still missing.)

The vulnerability remains up. Upside potential is outstanding to 2088.00. And sellers missed several opportunities to reverse momentum down.

But vulnerability to the upside is not a buy signal. Especially when sponsorship seems reluctant, as they are today. Both the bias environment exit and final hour entry were within the noon hour’s range. Any trending today should be obvious through the 3:10-3:20 timing window.

Shallow corrections rack up a bill.

The post-open reaction down from testing 2066.00 had recovered to trigger the bias-up signal triggered. After also extending through its bias-up target, the noon hour’s shallow correction confirmed the session had become overly optimistic.

Surging6 points to 2079.00 was broadsided easily by the FOMC news. Its reaction plunged to fresh session lows at 2055.50.

Recovering since then has climbed as high as 2075.50. There’s no requirement to resume the rally today. So long as the eventual third higher close required by Thursday’s confirmed breakout is fulfilled today, the rally’s next higher objective at 2088.00 is likely in-play.

Bouncing in the absence of falling.

The afternoon bias environment hovered at or above its 2053.00 bias-down signal. The signal was still being overlapped both at 1:20 and 1:30 to avoid triggering.

The resulting action didn’t form anything accumulative, so there’s no buying pressure. The morning’s bounce filled the gap back to yesterday’s close, and there’s no other attraction above. And there’s no actual range, so holding its lower-end doesn’t require testing its upper-end.

Price action is simply inhibited or paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of post-close earnings. Most notable is AAPL, whose own reaction rarely affects the broader market anyway.