Pre-close View

Prior session’s influence is lapsing.

Opening essentially flat within the range of a non-trending session wasn’t likely to trend intraday. That influence applies through the afternoon bias environment.

Now the bias environment has begun lapsing. And 2063.50 is being overlapped just like this morning’s bias environment exit. The bias environment also began lapsing within the noon hour’s range, and the final hour’s entry need not be any different. Trending today is still a little suspicious.

But if the noise isn’t going to extend through tomorrow morning’s bias environment, then it should be ending soon. Unfinished business below at 2058.50 remains in-play. Recovering positive territory above 2066.00 would be credible for extending higher, instead.

Is there an opening for sellers?

Probing under support when it was too late to gain traction didn’t earn a reward. It deserved a punishment. Typically that’s a return to the support’s origin.

This morning’s probing under 2063.50 was recovered, and reversed back up to the drop’s 2071.50 origin. That was the post-open high. The 2074.50 pre-open high was attacked to within 1 point.

Another opportunity to reverse down today all but requires sliding back under 2065.00-2066.00 now. There’s no requirement to rally any higher today — just closing above 2055.00 puts into play 2088.00 — but not sliding would be vulnerable to ticking higher into the close.

Timing window requirements in effect.

The afternoon bias environment was the exception. It did not probe the prior timing window’s high. It wasn’t required to trend down, but it did. A sell signal triggered under 2044.75 to within 2 ticks of its maximum pullback potential at 2034.50.

Any lower would have measured too much for being only a temporary pullback. Which is why we knew it would hold, because of the “unfinished business above.”

The session-long rally template that now requires the final hour to probe above the bias environment’s 2047.75 high. And overbought RSIs at the 2048.75 high require its retest. Back above 2044.00 would resume the rally into the close.

The rally resumed pretty quickly, already coming to within 3 points of the high at 2046.00. Consolidating there formed a Head & Shoulders that is now reacting down to 2041.25. The drop could extend to 2039.25 before fresh session highs become unlikely.

Afternoon plunge failing its recovery.

Exiting the noon hour in decline from 2028.25 slid sharply to 2012.75 at the bias environment’s low. The balance of the bias environment consolidated under its 2016.75 bias-down target, then around it, and finally just above it up to 2018.50 — until 2:30, when the bias environment began lapsing.

Exiting the bias environment by surging 6 points to 2024.00 retraced more than 61.8% of the plunge. But now another dip is testing the afternoon’s 2016.75 bias-down target. And the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window is around the corner.

Oversold RSIs at the 2012.75 low require a retest. Not necessarily today, not if 2019.00 were recovered first, and especially not if 2021.25 were recovered, too. But nothing above requires a retest, so extending down sharply today or overnight can’t be discounted.

Test of lower-end’s support is holding.

This afternoon’s no-bias environment was triggered without first testing either bias signal. But testing either one during the bias environment would still be required to define that end of the range.

A break lower did just that, holding the 2019.50 bias-down signal’s repeated testing for almost 45 minutes.

Despite hanging out down there, passing the time, the bias environment lapsing at 2:30 did not break lower. Instead, price began firming, and has extended to test the noon hour’s 2025.75 high by 3 ticks.

Maybe the firming will extend even higher. Or, not. That wasn’t accumulation at the low, so there’s no calculable upside attraction. But exceeding the noon hour’s high would next be attracted up to the morning’s 2031.50 high.

Back under 2023.00 could trigger another downleg. Otherwise, there’s no requirement to attempt trending again today.