Pre-close View

The final hour’s arrival invites new sponsorship.

This afternoon’s 2019.50 bias-down signal was touched within 3 minutes of the 1:20 bias timing window. It was touched again at 1:30. So, noN-bias triggered, which usually behaves like no-bias by holding the signal.

And despite probing 3 points lower, the bias environment’s low ultimately recovered 2019.50. It was recovered up to 2022.25. But the bias-down signal has not been rejected. A new rally leg is not underway.

Extending higher would target fresh high. Fresh highs would again be vulnerable to reversing down, more so than to backing-and-filling  in an uptrend. A break lower could extend through the close.

Two bearish indicators being overcome.

The afternoon’s fresh lows were probed during a no-bias environment, under its 2016.00 bias-down signal. Any day other than expiration would have required retracing up to 2016.00. Nevertheless, it was recovered, and exceeded to fresh session highs at 2024.75.

The session’s opening 15 minutes had trended down throughout suggesting downtrending throughout the day. Everything except the last upleg fulfilled the open’s setup. Meanwhile, the session’s bearish WedEX couldn’t sustain the downtrend. But its potential would remain alive — albeit on life support — by closing at or under 2023.00.

The bearish WedEX’s should influence Monday morning very aggressively, or else not at all. Not already trending down at Monday’s open would be likely to extend higher through the morning.

I’m unavailable the last half-hour today.

WE WILL HAVE MARKET WRAP EARLY AT 3:15 ET.

This afternoon’s 1995.50 bias-up signal was recovered during the noon hour. Its 2002.00 bias-up target was recovered at the 1:20 bias timing window. That renewed the bias-up signal, next targeting 2007.50.

2007.50 was just tested. Exiting the bias environment above it would next target 2011.00-2012.00. But that would likely be only a formality on the path up to 2019.50.

This recovery can still be reversed today. Exiting the bias environment at 2:30 or entering the final hour under 2002.00 would at least target 1995.50. Failing to hold above this morning’s ~2000.00 highs would suggest momentum is reversing down.

The origin of this rally has left behind Wednesday’s bearish close, and also this morning’s bearish bias environment exit. It’s clearly on a mission to neutralize attractions above. But the mission’s origin is not solid, so we know it’s only temporary, albeit currently in command.

Another fresh low, and now also traction.

The Beige Book release was greeted by a no-bias environment, consolidating down to 1991.50. A favorable knee-jerk reaction up briefly pierced the 1995.50 bias-up signal, and then extended back down to 1988.00. A consolidation there broke lower to test 1983.00.

1983.00 is under both the overnight low and its intraday probe. And it has room below to 1978.75-1979.75 if not rejected immediately.

A reaction up is testing 1988.00. It’s a start. Not really. Okay, maybe a little.

This afternoon has been an ongoing series of lower lows and lower highs. The bias environment exit was piercing under the noon hour’s low and the final hour was piercing under the bias environment’s low. Their traction wasn’t decisive, but buyers weren’t making the effort.

Trending up substantially through the 3:10-3:20 timing window might offset the indecisive downtrend. Otherwise the downtrend remains intact.

Early rally becomes bigger slide.

This morning’s rally from 1998.00 up to 2014.75 was sliding already into the noon hour. But that had potential for being only a temporary correction.

It wasn’t.

The second half of the noon hour slid more steeply. That had potential for being an exhaustive low.

It wasn’t.

No relevant resistance has been recovered, let alone probed. In fact, the drop has been a singular downtrend of lower lows and lower highs. The downtrending persisted while the bias environment lapsed into the final hour, which tends to entrench the trend.

It has.

The next lower attraction is 1993.50, which would have sufficed as a low if tested this morning, but whose test now would likely break lower to 1988.00. Back above 2004.00 at any time would start to signal the drop had ended anyway.