Pre-close View

Chipping away at the afternoon highs.

The final hour of the day is essentially positioning for the next session. At least, the current day’s influences will have run their course. There’s no requirement to trend higher, but the only attractions are above, so this session is free to start trending up.

2007.50 resistance has been tested and retested and double secret retested all afternoon. The bias environment exit and final hour’s entry didn’t gain traction, but there is no sell signal. So, suddenly piercing fresh afternoon highs above 2007.50 gets a benefit of the doubt for being able to trend into the close.

Looking forward, assuming the balance of the session does trend, launching from a narrow range would make fresh highs likely to reverse back down. So, I’m giving the current fresh afternoon highs only so much benefit of the doubt.

Window re-opens for a rally leg.

The offsetting test of this morning’s 1999.50 bias-down signal was fulfilled while exiting the noon hour. Sellers haven’t had any other effect since then, and now the afternoon’s bias environment is almost finished lapsing.

A rally leg is vulnerable to extending higher so long as 2004.25 holds as support. Actually extending higher through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would be very helpful confirmation. Regardless, the only unfinished business is above.

The decline is vulnerable to resuming, but there’s no inflection point to signal it. But probing under 1999.50 through 3:10-3:20 would be the last opportunity for sellers to be taken seriously today.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND. BE SURE TO ATTEND OR TO WATCH TODAY’S POST-CLOSE MARKET WRAP FOR A BIGGER PICTURE REVIEW.

Today’s FOMC behind us, last month’s FOMC ahead of us.

Huh?

This afternoon’s impending FOMC Minutes release is really neither here nor there. Little if anything about it is influential. Its surprises are usually irrelevant. Its real impact is in inhibiting price action ahead of its release.

So, this morning’s pattern was unlikely to extend higher, especially without gapping up. Filling the gap back to yesterday’s close and neutralizing the bias-up signal’s attraction were at first magnetic attractions above. They became repellent as trending ahead of FOMC anything is unlikely.

That repellent took price down low enough to enable a knee-jerk reaction too FOMC. Spiking up to the afternoon’s 1996.00 bias-up target was retraced to 1986.00. But that has been recovered to its next higher target at 2000.00.

And 2000.00 is sticking, not being rejected. So, the bias environment began lapsing above the noon hour’s range and the final hour is being entered above the bias environment’s high.

Buyers gained traction, but holding 2000.00 or not could make a difference. Closing above 2000.00 could extend higher tomorrow without delay. Closing under 2000.00 today can’t be assured of avoiding an interim dip.

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This afternoon’s 1981.00 bias-up signal did not trigger. That didn’t prevent probing above it during the no-bias environment. In fact, its 1986.00 bias-up target was met. And it was tested up to 1987.75.

Exiting the bias environment above its bias-up target can invalidate the no-bias trending that would otherwise require being retraced. Well, despite being poised to do just that, the no-bias trending was retraced back down to its 1981.00 bias-up signal. It was further retraced to the 1977.50 1:20 print.

So, the bias environment was exited above the noon hour’s high, but the final hour was entered lower. Can the 3:10-3:20 window rally 8 points to probe fresh session highs? That’s the only way for buyers to gain traction for today’s efforts.

I’m giving buyers a benefit of the doubt for recovering, anyway — whether through today’s close or by gapping up tomorrow — if only because I’m not seeing distribution that would point lower.

That doesn’t dismiss fresh highs.

This afternoon’s 1968.75 bias-up signal triggered and its 1974.50 bias-up target was met. It was exceeded upon exiting the bias environment on the way up to 1979.25.

Choppiness there has fluctuated down to 1975.00. I’m suspicious of it being able to reverse the trend down. Any lower will have earned a deeper pullback to at least test 1969.00.

The rally may yet resume back above 1978.00. Meanwhile, a deeper slide to 1969.00 is possible.