Pre-close View

Did avoiding bias-down only delay a deeper down?

This afternoon”s 2073.00 bias-down signal was still being tested at 1:20 and 1:30 both to avoid triggering, and to avoid being rejected. The noN-bias environment ranged choppily sideways around 2073.00.

Then the bias environment started lapsing. But the drop didn”t resume, instead retracing up to 2077.00 into the final hour. Another couple of points have been added.

Closing above 2077.00 would position the market for the potential to isolate today”s decline, and to launch another recovery tomorrow. Closing under 2073.00 — or gapping down under 2073.00 tomorrow – would be likely instead to resume this morning decline to 2067.00.

Upside target met, not yet rejected.

Recall that this morning”s open created potential up to 2100.00. Testing it during this afternoon”s no-bias environment would have required rejecting it, and probably by reversing the trend down steeply.

Tts test was delayed until the bias environment came within view of lapsing. A surge to 2100.75 was retraced back down under 2098.00 where the surge had originated But the retracement hasn”t extended down into a reversal.

Anyway, a reversal has room down to the 2096.00 area before signaling a more substantial drop targeting 2091.00 and 2088.00.

The bias environment was exited above the noon hour”s high, but the final hour isn”t being entered any higher. Back above 2099.50 would at least target fresh session highs, where overbought RSIs require a retest. Trending up to fresh highs through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would still confirm buyers are gaining traction to extend the rally.

Two consecutive timing windows ranged relatively narrowly. They were choppy, but didn”t trend. Two often becomes three, so won”t be surprising if the range were to persist through the final hour.

Exiting the bias environment beyond the noon hour”s range could have signaled trending. Entering the final hour above the bias environment”s 2067.00 high and the noon hour”s 2068.00 high would still be credible for trying to gain traction.

In fact, 2067.00 is being probed now, attacking 2068.00. But remember that potential for two sideways ranges to become three? An attempt to break them in one direction can ricochet more substantially in the opposite direction.

Whichever direction the range does break, if at all, monitor confirmation from the 3:10-3:20 timing window extending to fresh afternoon extremes.

Corrective bounce done, or recovery ready to accelerate?

The afternoon”s bounce came within 1 tick of fulfilling its 2080.00 objective as the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30. Price action since then has drifted back down to 2077.00.

In fact, every leg has overlapped 2077.00 since testing it into the noon hour. It hasn”t let go. And it hasn”t been recovered.

So, was this bounce a classic second-to-last hour counter-trend leg that often precedes resuming the intraday trend? Those happen often during strongly trending sessions. Or, is another recovery leg about to begin, at a steeper pace than its first 10 points from 2070.00?

Back above 2082.25 would confirm a bigger rally targeting at least 2088.00. But back under 2074.00 would target fresh session lows, which is tough to defend against extending this late in the day.

Session-long nothing, as bounce extends.

This afternoon”s 2095.50 bias-down signal triggered. It was no more productive after 1:20 than before, so it could have been invalidated by exiting the bias environment above the prior timing window”s high.

But the bias environment exit was still overlapping 2095.50. While probing above it, but still overlapping it. Its 2088.75 bias-down target now becomes “unfinished business below” that must be tested eventually.

Meanwhile, sloppy ranging between 2091.00-2095.50 needed to be reset. Breaking back above 2094.50 triggered a buy signal targeting at least 2097.50, and potentially 2099.50. It just tested 2098.50, which is sufficient to launch a new downleg into the close back under 2096.00.

Extending higher anyway would next target 2101.50, whose recovery would resume the rally from yesterday”s lows.