Pre-close View

There”s a path to resuming the rally. But the door to it is closing.

The afternoon”s bias environment was entered after retesting the morning”s 2087.00 low. The bias environment began by bouncing back up to the noon hour”s 2092.50 high. Noise.

Then the noise grew louder, by plunging 11 points to 2081.50. During the no-bias environment. And 3 points under the bias-down signal. That”s no-bias trending, which required bouncing back up to the 2084.50 bias-down signal.

The bounce could have been reversed back down to resume the decline next targeting 2077.00. But the bounce extended back up to the 2089.50 1:20 print. Entering the final hour above it would have helped to avoid resuming the decline down to 2077.00. But it was exceeded 1 minute later.

Oversold RSIs at the 2081.50 low require its eventual retest. That can be delayed so long as the balance of this session resumes rallying. Closing today in positive territory would essentially isolate today”s selling to help fuel a rally tomorrow (if not already overnight). That path higher should be obvious no later than the 3:10-3:20 timing window, or else the intraday decline will have more likely resumed.

Stalling on the way to the next lower objective.

Room for noise down to 2077.00 remains outstanding. It doesn”t require being tested, but its test is likelier as timing windows lapse without rejecting the decline.

Now the bias environment has been exited just under the noon hour”s range. The final hour”s entry had momentarily pierced a fresh low, but that didn”t qualify. Extending down to a fresh session low under 2080.00 through the 3:10-3:20 window would confirm that sellers gained traction.

Even if sellers don”t gain traction, fresh lows can be probed tomorrow. But it would be difficult to recover without also probing sharply lower.

Sellers trying to gain traction after meeting target.

Having held or overlapped the morning”s 2105.50 bias-up signal through the bias environment”s exit, its 2098.00 objective became unfinished business below. Ranging around 2105.50 began collapsing through the noon hour before extending down to fresh session lows at 2096.50.

Ranging sideways attacked 2101.00 above, now returning back down to 2098.00 support. There”s no requirement to hold, or to bounce. But it”s not very bullish to still be consolidating at session lows for this long, entering the final hour.

The bias environment exit was under the noon hour”s low, but the final hour”s entry was within the noon hour”s range. Trending down to fresh lows by 3:20 would confirm sellers are gaining traction, but not otherwise. And having the luxury of consolidating just ticks above the low, it wouldn”t be very bearish not trend down as needed. Bouncing has touch resistance to overcome at 2101.50.

In whichever direction the pattern resolves, the position-squaring window at 3:37-3:52 could trend sharply.

The final hour has probed fresh session highs. Actually, fresh post-open highs, touching the 2103.75 pre-open high.

But that”s not traction. The final hour”s entry, itself, was still overlapping the bias environment”s high, the bias environment exit was still within the noon hour”s range, and the 3:10-3:20 timing window only hovered at the highs instead of trending higher.

I wouldn”t step in front of this and short it here, but I wouldn”t hesitate too long if price is dipping under 2101.00. Despite not signaling new sponsorship, the recovery is vulnerable to extending to 2105.50.

If the recovery isn”t extending, then it”s likely to trend back down. Retesting 2087.75 today would be a little surprising, but not much.

No surprise: no hike. No disappointment, either.

At least, no disappointment of its own accord. The only reaction down followed the initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up. That was a 6-point spike from 2096.00 that plunged almost 11 points to fulfill the required test of 2091.50.

Reaction to the spike up, attraction below… There”s only one opportunity for a rejected spike up to trend down. Consolidating momentarily just under 2096.00 failed to extend down, and now fresh highs just tested 2104.00.

Recovering back above the spike”s 2096.00 origin all but required retesting the spike”s 2102.25 peak. Waiting to retest 2102.25 until the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30 has helped to inhibit counter-trend sponsorship from rejecting it again.

And now entering the final hour above the bias environment”s high gives the 3:10-3:20 timing window an opportunity to gain traction. Probing fresh highs would make follow-through tomorrow likely. Back under 2099.25 would be vulnerable instead to a sliding into the close