Pre-close View

Intraday consolidation is ending.

The afternoon bias environment”s 2089.00 exit was at the bias environment”s upper-end, so it doesn”t qualify as gaining traction. But the final hour”s 2092.00 entry was above the bias environment”s high, which does.

Extending higher through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would confirm buyers gained traction for today”s efforts. Their reward would be control of tomorrow morning”s bias environment.

The rally effort would be more credible if already rallying out of the bias environment, instead of waiting until minutes before the final hour”s entry. Not trending up through 3:10-3:20 would be vulnerable to reversing down sharply. Currently, that trigger is under 2089.50.

Absent a big reversal down, today”s session will be the breakout that we discussed during this weekend”s Saturday Review. Confirming it with a second consecutive higher close would put into play new highs. Meanwhile, probing higher Tuesday morning could reverse down intraday to avoid confirmation, while also reversing the trend back down. We”ll discuss the possible paths from here, and their consequences, during today”s post-market Wrap.

The no-bias environment began lapsing at the bottom of the hour. It is being exited within the noon hour”s range. But that”s on the way to probing above the 2072.50 high.

Having pulled back (to 2066.00) during the no-bias environment, no other backing-and-filling should be necessary before rallying. So, another pullback from this initial probe above 2072.50 would suggest that the probe doesn”t actually intend to extend.

That also comports with the timing. Entering the final hour above the bias environment”s 2071.75 high would gain traction by also extending higher through the 3:10-3:20 timing window.

Extending higher would next target a test of 2076.00. Otherwise, a dip has room down to 2068.00 before beginning to signal anything more substantial to the downside underway.

Stunning reversal opportunity now forming.

This afternoon”s 2045.00 bis-down target was met. And it was probed down to 2043.50. Now every intraday timing window has probed its prior timing window. Usually, there is one exception. Is it the final hour?

A buy signal that triggered back above 2048.00 has extended up to 2052.50. That”s the afternoon bias environment”s high. Trending up above it through the 3:10-3:20 timing window (now underway) would be vulnerable to a massive short-squeeze.

Otherwise, there is no requirement to resume declining. Back under 2048.00 might try, if only to retest oversold RSIs at the 2043.50 low.

Probing fresh session lows.

Already reacting down from 2053.00, tThe reaction to FOMC Minutes extended down to 2046.00. And that soon began sliding to 2036.00.

The drop didn”t probe fresh session lows until after the bias environment had begun lapsing at 2:30. A modest bounce did not recover the session”s prior low going into the final hour. But now a bigger bounce seems to be doing that through the 3:10-3:20 timing window.

Well, into the timing window, at least. Exiting the 3:10-3:20 timing window back under 2043.00 would be a clear rejection of the recovery attempt. A steep and substantial dive into the close would be the likely consequence.

Otherwise, extending above 2049.25 at any time would be credible for rallying into the close, instead. And a recovery from here could go a long way.

Fresh highs threatening to gain traction.

The afternoon”s 2059.25 bias-up target was met and not exceeded by 1:20, so the bias-up signal wasn”t renewed. The bias environment hovered narrowly around 2059.25, until a late dip that touched the 2053.75 bias-up signal as support.

Its reaction up rallied 19 points to 2073.00. The final hour was entered well above the bias environment”s high. That would have been bullish for tomorrow if the bias environment had been exited above the noon hour”s high. Nevertheless, it could be bullish if the 3:10-3:20 window were to extend to fresh highs.

Not confirming the final hour”s entry wouldn”t default to bearish. And it wouldn”t prevent extending higher today after 3:20. Its absence would leave the door open to yet another intraday dip. Intraday dips are vulnerable to probing new lows, and there”s no bullish reason for another fresh low.

Meanwhile, quarterly earnings news will take on a higher profile, helping to drown out the noise of Greece thrashing about on the hull of the market”s deep sea fishing boat. That might actually help to insert a rally.