Pre-close View

Deeper afternoon dip is still holding support. Barely.

The 2051.25 bias-down target was touched, despite being a noN-bias environment that avoided triggering bias-down. Back above 2054.25-2056.00 would reversing momentum back up to test 2062.00 if not also 2066.00-2067.00.

Above or below 2066.00-2067.00 is still predictive. Closing above it would help the afternoon”s recovery to extend higher overnight, and probably much higher tomorrow. Closing under it would enable today”s bearishness to persist, making an overnight bounce likely to fail.

That”s the close. Meanwhile, the bias environment was exited under the noon hour”s low. Entering the final hour under the bias environment”s 2051.25 low would give the decline traction for extending down tomorrow morning. A retest of Sunday night”s lows would be targeted, with no requirement to hold them or to recover.

It”s no mystery. Weekend illiquidity has taken hold.

The 2062.25 objective of this morning”s bias parameter was fulfilled at the afternoon”s low. Touching it bounced back into the relatively narrow 2063.00-2065.00 range that had begun developing during the noon hour. Ranging sideways even more narrowly for nearly an hour then began trending into the final hour.

That trending was up. And the trending extended to test 2069.25, which would have been the target of a bounce during the bias environment instead of after.

In either case, bouncing was less the product of buyers, and due more to sellers having been satisfied. One end of the range reacted to the other end.

Now a reaction down is threatening to extend. Almost any selling pressure back under 2066.00 is likely to become a lot of selling pressure down to 2060.50 or 2058.00. Meanwhile, not increasing selling pressure here would be vulnerable simply to drifting higher into the close.

Slow-playing the last downleg.

Probing fresh session lows into and out of the noon hour reached 2060.75 before bouncing back 6 points. The bias environment;s fresh low at 2059.75 has bounced back 6 points, too.

Now the final hour has begun. The session-long decline”s template — which we”re tracking since having inverted the open”s session-long rally setup — should drop at least 6 points to fresh session lows. Back under 2064.25 and 2063.00 would signal the break underway.

Developing exclusively in positive territory doesn”t undermine the session-long decline template. It might speak to any potential follow-through tomorrow. But so long as 2066.00 continues holding as resistance or recaptures any momentary probe above it, the template remains intact.

No new sponsorship to the bounce.

Holding the test of this afternoon”s 2049.50 bias-down signal at 1:20 didn”t require an offsetting test of the 2062.00 bias-up signal. That setup is a morning requirement. In the no-bias environment, bias signals need only define the range”s ends.

So, it wasn”t required, but the bias environment began rallying .It probed the bias-up signal by 4 points. That was “no-bias trending” which required being retraced back to its 2062.00 bias-up signal.

Often, the consequence of no-bias trending a visit to the 1:20 print, too. That”s 2051.50, and it has been attacked to within almost 2 points. Reaching it and then extending down would target new session lows. There is otherwise no rally target.

Attack on overnight low is reacting up sharply.

This afternoon”s 2066.50 bias-down signal”s 2060.25 bias-down target was attacked to within 1 tick when price dumped another 2 points in a single minute. That was proof the drop was extending down. Being within 10-15 minutes of the bias environment lapsing made it likelier.

The drop did extend, down to 2054.75. That”s within 3 minutes of the overnight low, essentially fulfilling the objective of the impatient post-open rally attempt that had quickly met its 2082.25 target.

A steep 7-point reaction up to 2061.75 confirms this is a relevant support area. But the steep surge reflects an impatience that prevents this relevant support from holding.

It might not even define this afternoon”s low. The 7-point bounce has dipped back down to 2058.75 whose break would target fresh lows at 2049.50. And that could not only delay a bottom, but also accelerate selling pressure to get in front of the July 4 3-day weekend.