Pre-close View

Fresh lows probed until the very last possible minute.

The afternoon”s 2087.25 bias-down target was met by 1:20, and wasn”t exceeded. Sellers were neither patient nor overwhelming. That didn”t preclude extending down further, since it was still a bias-down environment. But it prevented a bounce from exceeding its 2092.75 bias-down signal.

In fact, 2087.25 was probed momentarily by 1 point before bouncing to 2094.00. Ranging sideways into the final hour then surged to 2096.25.

It”s a little late on a Friday for fresh afternoon highs to produce another downleg. It”s also getting a little late for buyers to gain traction. So long as 2092.00 holds as support, extending higher should test this morning”s 2098.50-2099.25 preliminary levels.

Sellers gained no traction for today”s efforts, since the bias environment was exited within the noon hour”s range and the final hour was entered within the bias environment”s range. The downward influences were ultimately satisfied, albeit at their last possible moments. But the lows weren”t rejected in time to rely on trending back up next week, or absorbing another break lower.

REMINDER: This weekend”s Saturday Review will begin at 9:30am ET. There is no review next week due to the holiday..

Creeping lower, but barely trending.

The 2101.50 bias-down signal was still being overlapped both at 1:20 and at 1:30 to avoid triggering. The noN-bias environment didn”t require fulfilling the 2096.00 bias-down target. But it was tested anyway, on the way to 2092.50. Now a 6-point bounce is trying to hold above 2096.00.

It”s negative territory, but not by very much. And sellers aren”t gaining traction for today”s efforts — the bias environment exit was under the noon hour”s low, but the final hour”s entry wasn”t under the bias environment”s low, and the 3:10-3:20 timing window didn”t trend down, either.

So far, it seems that trending down through Friday morning is being attacked with the least necessary effort.

Let”s see what the position squaring window does before drawing a conclusion. It”s opening now at 3:37. The session”s final timing window — last 60-90 minutes — has yet to probe under a prior timing window”s low. It will, if this is a session-long decline session. And it will be vulnerable to ticking down into the close.

Closing above 2099.25 would be the only bullish development possible today, and the trend otherwise remains down.

Hovering optimistically above the lows

Low after low today took RSIs oversold, dooming each bounce to failure as the low”s retest was required. The current 2101.25 low is no exception. Oversold RSIs there require its retest. Despite retracing all but 1 tick of its reaction up to 2105.50, the 2101.25 low requires a retest.

And that”s despite another reaction up now testing 2105.00.

Back under 2103.25 (being tested now) would target 2097.25. It”s too late for sellers to gain traction for their effort, since only the bias environment”s exit was bearish while the final hour”s entry was not. So, probing fresh lows today — potentially down to 2097.25 — could make fully expended sellers prone.

Bouncing any higher into the close is possible, but the ranging at session lows is not accumulative. Back above 2106.00 could test 2109.00 while only refueling sellers for a deeper drop tomorrow.

Having failed to bounce this morning or to hold 2113.50 support, trending down through Friday morning is now the premise. Thursday has two paths to recovering, which we”ll discuss during the post-market Wrap.

Signs of sellers sold out, and of buyers buying in.

Today”s likely objective was a test of 2112.00. Its test was delayed until the noon hour, where weak hands dominate. And the dip to its fresh low began after noon, and was recovered before the noon hour was fully exited.

All of which suggests sellers are nearly finished. That”s not accumulation, but it does open the door.

Exiting the bias environment above the noon hour”s high, and entering the final hour above the bias environment”s high… that”s accumulation.

So, buyers have gained traction for their efforts. Whatever else might happen before today”s close, and so long as Wednesday doesn”t gap down under today”s lows, tomorrow morning is likely to rally. The balance of today”s session is likely to rally, but not required.

Back under 2114.50 would suggest that one more brief dip was being worked in. But the rally should otherwise resume shortly.

Noon hour”s retracement has extended into the afternoon.

The noon hour is usually the one intraday timing window that doesn”t participate in the “session-long rally.” All other windows probe above their prior timing window”s high. One timing window usually does not, and it”s usually the noon hour.

Today”s noon hour did trend back down, and the noon hour does contain the low. So far, only the noon hour contains selling pressure.

But while the bias environment following it hasn”t extended down, neither has it recovered. The window hovered just a couple of points under the noon hour”s 2117.75 high for so long without touching it. Only now is 2117.75 being attacked to within 3 ticks, 20 minutes since the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30.

The bias environment doesn”t finish lapsing until entering the final hour. Recovering 2117.75 by then would get the session-long rally back on track. Trending up further through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would confirm, re-opening the door to fresh session highs.