Pre-close View

Greece news reaction hasn”t extended, and hasn”t reversed.

PROGRAMMING NOTE:
I am unavailable during today”s final hour. We”ll do Market Wrap early at 2:55pm ET. Its recording link will be sent tonight.

Since spiking up this morning, price has only ranged narrowly sideways. This afternoon”s 2106.50 bias-up signal was touched several times but never pierced. Its last reaction dipped to test 2103.00.

That was recovered to test the 2106.50 bias-up signal, during the no-bias environment — and the no-bias signal is intended to define the no-bias environment”s upper-end until the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30. But just coming to within 10-15 minutes of 2:30 now allows trending to start at any time.

By the way, the afternoon”s bias environment pierced the noon hour”s high by a couple of ticks. The noon hour”s high had not pierced the morning”s bias environment high. If today is still behaving like a “session-long rally,” then the final hour should trend to new session highs.

Regardless of how strong it is, Wednesday”s rally is just one day. A second consecutive higher close is needed for confirmation that new highs are back in-play. Closing today above 2111.75 and 2117.00 would be increasingly likely to extend higher Thursday.

Retracement stops short of becoming recovery.

This morning”s retracement of the post-open dive wasn”t exceeded until the noon hour. That later attack on 2085.00 would have been bullish an hour earlier coming out of the bias environment. But the noon hour was less conciliatory, and that has served as the session peak.

The bias environment started lapsing within the noon hour;s range, surging only minutes later to 2084.00. That surge didn”t extend, and the final hour;s entry was back at the bias environment”s 2080.00 low. Neijther trending setup had triggered, so any further trending attempt was likely to fail.

A sell signal that triggered under 2080.50 has extended to within 1 tick of its 2076.00 objective. This can be the pullback”s low, anyway. Back above 2079.75 would signal momentum reversing up — new session highs would be possible, but not required.

Meanwhile, just closing in positive territory doesn”t equate to ending the decline. But it would suggest that rallying from here will begin by gapping up. Almost any weaker open Wednesday would be credible for resuming the decline.

Timing windows have aligned.

The bias environment began lapsing at 2:30 by surging through a 2080.50 buy signal. The final hour was entered above the bias environment”s 2082.00 high.

All of that buying pressure came after the bias environment had probed fresh trend lows at 2077.75. That also followed neutralizing attractions below — from the oversold RSIs at Friday”s 2083.50 low to 2081.25 and then this afternoon”s 2078.75 bias-down target.

Apart from oversold RSIs at this afternoon”s low, the path is clear for a short-squeeze. So clear, that if not exploited, then buyers are truly damaged.

Back under 2082.00 (being tested now) would put into play at least a retest of the 2077.50 low, for one last chance to form a durable bottom. Back above 2086.50 would all but require extending higher through the close.

Not for lack of trying, but positive territory has evaporated.

The noon hour”s 6-point surge to 2114.00 extended through the afternoon”s bias-up target by 1 point to 2116.00. Its reaction down exited the bias environment holding a test of 2112.00 as support.

But the dip from 2116.00 has since extended down to 2107.25. That”s the origin of the noon hour”s 6-point surge.

After trapping this morning”s shorts, a very productive afternoon rally should be squeezing them further. But it”s not. Another rally leg can be signaled back above 2110.00, but that must be sooner rather than later to squeeze shorts that initiated under 2112.00 after 2:30.

Otherwise, rallying overnight or tomorrow would be unlikely if this afternoon”s pullback were to extend under 2106.50. Closing back above 2112.00 would be a big step toward producing a delayed reaction to this morning”s recovery.

So, which was the detour — morning”s dive, or afternoon”s rally?

Extending this morning”s bounce above 2110.00 wasn”t expected, but it was expected to mean an even more substantial corrective bounce underway.

The bounce did trigger a buy signal above 2109.25. This afternoon”s 2112.00 bias-up signal triggered. And now this afternoon”s 2118.00 bias-up target has been met to within 1 tick.

Still just a detour? That”s affected less by its measurements than by timing window action. And this afternoon”s bias environment began lapsing at 2:30 above all prior timing window highs. Whether shallow or steep, it”s all relative, and it”s difficult to reverse that degree of strength.

Now the bias environment is fully lapsed upon entering the final hour, retracing a dip to 2114.50. A fresh low would be credible for resuming this morning”s decline, very aggressively — unfinished business below remains outstanding at 2098.50.

Trending to fresh session highs above 2118.00 through the 3:10-3:20 window would target 2121.25 and potentially also 2124.50. Closing above 2121.25 could launch a brief probe this week of new highs.