Pre-close View

Not just for today, but for the week.

The afternoon”s 2115.75 bias-up signal was attacked to within 2 ticks. But not until 1:30, when recovering it would have only invalidated the no-bias. So, it held.

An offsetting test of the 2104.25 bias-down signal wasn”t required, but it”s being tested now. Probed down to 2103.00 as the final hour approaches.

The bias environment was exited under the noon hour”s low. Entering the final hour under the bias environment”s 2105.75 low would have signaled the decline is gaining traction. But it”s being overlapped into the final hour, so trending down under the 2103.00 low through 3:10-3:20 would still be bearish.

This setup normally would be compelling for a hold-short. Today”s traction setup includes a failed probe above the noon hour”s high, making a more substantial rejection of the recovery, and making hold-short more compelling.

Regardless of the ultimate traction signal, being a Friday makes the last half-hour extra vulnerable to trending sharply in either direction, for whatever reason. Example: A 12-point rally from this morning”s low was triggered by a headline, and it was just retraced almost entirely.

Attacking yesterday”s close isn”t bullish enough.

The afternoon”s no-bias environment triggered without having touched either bias signal. Price ranged narrowly for the next hour, flat-to-higher, but more flat than higher.

Now the final hour”s entry is testing 2120,00, which is essentially yesterday”s last-minute reaction down. So, still negative territory.

This recovery effort has expended a lot of buying pressure. And it might have refueled sellers. The difference may be in whether the 3:10-3:20 timing window can extend into positive territory, preferably above 2122.50. It could extend to 2133.00.

Extending higher at all would isolate the probe under 2118.00 to today”s session. Isolating it to last night would have been bullish for today. Otherwise, back under 2117.50 would start to signal that sellers are refueled, and that momentum is reversing down.

Relentless uptrend is fulfilling upside attractions.

Today”s ongoing series of higher highs and higher lows has extended well beyond 2107.00-2108.00 resistance. The post-open 2108.00 buy signal peaked quickly upon probing its 2113.00 bias-up target by 2 points.

The late-morning 2114.00 buy signal has developed more slowly, but relentlessly, and more substantially. Extending higher to product overbought RSIs helped to secure dips from reversing down. And those dips recovered every pullback limit”s test to fresh highs.

The afternoon”s 2124.00 bias-up target was just attacked to within 2 ticks. Meeting it to within 3 ticks disqualifies it from being “unfinished business above.”

Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs were essentially overbought again at the high. But 1-minute was borderline, as well as making its own lower high, and it”s getting a little late. Hesitating through the bottom of the hour would likely trade flat-to-lower for the balance of the session.

One more attraction above is outstanding, which is the gap back to Friday”s 2124.25 close. Filling it isn”t required, not until recovering back to within its orbit. Unless the close is back under 2118.00, today”s rally will be likely to resume tomorrow.

That”s within 2 ticks of the afternoon”s 2124.00 bias-up target.

Short-squeeze avoided, capitulation warning.

Here”s today”s chaRTroom links again
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)

Exiting the bias environment back above the noon hour”s 2105.55 high would have made a short-squeeze likely through the close. And a short-squeeze at this stage of this pattern would be substantial, targeting 2114.25 as a correction, if not also fresh session highs as a reversal.

But the bias environment”s fresh low at 2096.50 are nearer than its 2103.00 high — 5 ticks lower vs. 5 points higher. And the bias environment has begun lapsing already, from under the noon hour”s low. Entering the final hour lower could melt down into the close.

Note that there is no requirement to trend down, simply as an alternative to bouncing. Firming back into the range isn”t very likely, but it”s possible. Anyway, the alternative to bouncing is still much likelier to steepen the slide.

Nothing relevant on a day like this, but it”s not done yet.

2126.00 had been probed already before the embargo was lifted on Yellen”s speech. Its knee-jerk reaction was essentially up, surging to 2129.75.

That was two hours ago. A pullback to 2126.00 has bounced back to 2128.00.

There”s no requirement to rally again today, just a vulnerability. Downside is less likely because unfinished business is above at 2133.00, and because sellers had plenty of opportunity already to break lower.

None of which protects this low-participation environment from a knee-jerk reaction down in case of a headline. Headlines and knee-jerk reactions can still cut either way.

REMINDER: This being a holiday weekend, there is NO weekend Saturday Review.