Pre-close View

No traction, some action.

The bias environment”s 2:30 exit around 2093.50 was at the noon hour range”s lower-end. The final hour”s entry was similar. Sellers didn”t gain traction for their effort. And not that it matters at this stage for traction, but the 3:10-3:20 timing window wasn”t much different.

That doesn”t preclude lower lows, but it makes them unlikely to endure. Meanwhile, there remains vulnerability down to 2088.0-2090.00. And as late as it is, probing lower and recovering should be done in the blink of an eye.

It”s too late for a lower close to require extending down tomorrow. And current price action doesn”t suggest any attempt at closing high enough to justify a hold-long.

Bias environment exit looking for traction.

The bias environment exit at 2:30 was above the noon hour”s high. This is bullish. But it is in a vacuum, and meaningless without confirmation. Its confirmation would have been entering the final hour above the bias environment”s high, but the final hour entry dipped.

There is a proxy, the 3:10-3:20 window. Remaining within the range wouldn”t be predictive either way. However…

Trending up to a fresh session high above 2100.75 would signal what the final hour”s entry did not, that buyers had gained traction.

The proxy window can cut either way. Trending down under the bias environment”s 2093.25 high through 3:10-3:20 could extend back into the open”s range at 2083.00.

Ending today under yesterday”s 2101.00 cash session close equivalent would keep the burden of proof on buyers that today was just a corrective dip.

Sellers gaining traction as they meet more downside targets.

The offsetting test of this morning”s 2104.25 bias-down signal had been met to within 3 ticks. That was close enough to neutralize its attraction. But it didn”t attract buyers, instead extending down to 2099.50.

Oversold RSIs at the 2099.50 low require its retest. Its retest is likely, down to 2098.50, so long as 2103.00 isn”t recovered first (being probed now).

Meanwhile, the final hour was entered under the bias environment”s low. This followed the bias environment exiting under the noon hour”s low. Sellers gained traction, and their reward is to control the next morning. Not just piercing a fresh low, but trading exclusively negative, and possible trending down.

That reward can be avoided by rallying instead. But the only credible rally tomorrow would begin by gapping up.

Currently, a bounce is testing 2104.25. Extending higher can leave the “unfinished business below” outstanding. But back under 2101.50 would target 2098.50.

Still time for a squeeze?

The afternoon”s bias environment”s 2108.00 exit at 2:30 was under the noon hour”s low. Entering the noon hour even lower would have given sellers traction, but it was entered at 2110.00. 

Fresh lows through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would be a proxy for the final hour”s entry. But the window is bouncing, not dropping.

Probing the bias environment”s 2112.00 high through 3:20 would at least trigger trending through the close. It has been attacked to within2 ticks, and would get a benefit of the doubt if probed without any interim retracement.

Meanwhile, there”s no requirement to trend any more so today. But trending down continues to be the least likely option.

There won”t be any hold-long (or hold-short) today. And don”t forget about tomorrow morning”s Saturday Review!

Rally holds up, but on-hold — with one door open.

The bias environment”s relatively narrow ranging was exited within the noon hour”s range. And now the final hour was entered within the bias environment”s range. Nothing can be done today for buyers to gain traction for their efforts.

Trending up through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would still be credible for triggering a rally into the 3;37-3:52 position-squaring window. Closing back under the noon hour”s high would greet tomorrow”s Employment Situation report from a position of weakness, and require gapping up to avoid trending down.

Back under 2082.50 would target 2078.25, possibly lower — but not too much lower, or else there won”t be time to close back above 2080.50 and greet the Employment Situation report from a position of strength.