Pre-close View

Lower and lower lows may have stopped their downtrending.

Sellers started gaining traction, but weren”t confirmed. The bias environment”s 2068.00 exit was under the noon hour”s 2072.50 low. But despite having extended down to 2061.25, the final hour”s entry was overlapping the bias environment”s 2066.00 low. 

The 3:10-3:20 timing window didn”t confirm or reject, so it”s too late for any action today to be predictive for Thursday”s session. 

Is it too late to start trending back up? An 8-point bounce is now slipping back as the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window starts opening. Back under 2066.00 would likely target fresh lows at 2058.50. But that would still be too late to influence tomorrow”s session.

If not delayed much longer, back above 2070.25 could add another 8-9 points before the close.

Stretching back down to bounce up has gotten close to breaking.

The 2084.50 bias-down target was met after the bias environment began lapsing, on the way down to 2081.50. It quickly reacted back up to 2084.50, and then down to 2081.50 again.

Simultaneously oversold RSIs diverged positively on the retest. That”s potentially bullish, at least for a bounce back toward the bias environment”s 2090.75 high. Back above the positive divergence”s 2084.50 interim high would be a credible start. It was just pierced, but by only an errant tick.

Not bouncing higher, and instead probing a fresh low first, could be very bearish. Dramatically lower before the close, targeting the 2060.00 area.

The last positive divergence at 2086.00 probed lower without first probing above its interim high. Two such consecutive patterns would suggest much bigger selling pressure coming down the pipeline.

Afternoon recovery attempt needs to reassert itself. Now.

This afternoon”s bias environment was greeted at 1:20 testing pullback lows under 2107.00. The bias environment exit at 2:30 had trended back up to 2111.75.

That was just under the noon hour”s high. Exiting the bias environment above the noon hour”s high would have been bullish. Entering the final hour above the bias environment”s high would have been bullish, too. But it was entered at 2109.25.

No price action is possible anymore today that can indicate that buyers gained traction for their efforts. That doesn”t prevent extending higher into the close — which would not be likely without already trending up through the 3:10-3:20 timing window that just opened. But if buyers can”t grab new ground this afternoon, then extending higher tomorrow would require gapping up.

Extending higher remains the likeliest scenario. That would be undermined by dipping too deeply this afternoon. So, without already trending up now during the  3:10-3:20 timing window, the balance of the session could just range choppily sideways.

Next big target met, but so far holding.

Holding the 2098.00 pullback limit allowed the rally to extend, piercing the 2101.50 target by 2 ticks. It reacted back down to within1 tick of 2098.00.

Can it extend to the 2109.50-2111.00 target? The bias environment was exited above the noon hour”s high, but the final hour”s entry dipped. Trending up to fresh highs through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would restart the rally — probably as a short-squeeze.

There”s no requirement to trend higher. And there”s otherwise the eventual requirement to revisit this afternoon”s 2095.25 bias-up signal that broke higher during a no-bias environment.

Regardless of the resolution, hold-long and hold-short won”t be considered at the close.

Fresh lows as the bias environment lapses.

Actually, the afternoon”s 2085.00 bias-down signal was probed when the bias environment”s 2:30 lapse came into view 10-15 minutes prior. A drop to 2080.25 has been consolidating, and now it”s probing lower.

Entering the final hour back above 2085.00 would have been bullish. That”s unlikely now.

The next lower objectives are 2077.00 and 2070.00-2072.00.

Popping up through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would be credible for extending sharply higher into the 3:37 position-squaring window. But only temporarily. And meanwhile, the trend remains down.