Pre-close View

Entering the last half-hour unchanged.

The reaction up from testing the 2088.00 objective did retrace at least 61.8% of the last downleg. And it was retraced before the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30. The decline”s momentum lapsed.

But it wasn”t reversed. The last downleg”s 2094.50 origin wasn”t recovered into the final hour. The 3:10-3:20 timing window did nothing. Buyers and sellers aren”t gaining any traction, but they”re also not making an effort.

The slowdown is unnecessary. But it”s instructive. Nothing about it gives sellers any benefit of the doubt. Nor does it prevent trying to extend higher before the close. But at this stage, only closing above yesterday”s 2097.50 high would have any predictive value.

Afternoon consolidation should be ending now.

The noon hour and bias environment edged lower. But the pattern wasn”t distributive, so there was no sell signal.

The bias environment was exited under the noon hour”s 2094.50 low, which was the first time a sell signal was considered. But the sell signal was only touched and not triggered. So the final hour wasn”t entered any lower. Sellers didn”t gain traction after edging lower through two consecutive timing windows.

Entering the final hour above the bias environment”s 2095.50 high would have been bullish, but that was barely attempted. Trending up through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window to probe the noon hour”s 2096.75 high would be bullish, too. An as that window now opens, 2096.75 is being attacked to within 3 ticks.

If buyers gain traction here, the balance of the session could fulfill expectations for sharply higher highs into the close. But it all depends on extending higher through 3:10-3:20.

Did afternoon plunge step out of bounds?

This afternoon”s bias environment triggered no-bias. That didn”t prevent probing under its 2071.75 bias-down signal. This is called “no-bias trending” and requires revisiting the bias-down signal. 

We anticipated yesterday”s probe above its afternoon bias-up signal to retrace for the same reason. Typically, that delayed strength is the work of weak-handed sponsorship. An exception to the retracement is if the bias environment is exited beyond the bias-down target. This would signal that sponsorship was actually strong-handed.

That exception was attempted by testing this afternoon”s 2066.25 bias-down target, down to 2064.50. But the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30 at 2068.50. So, the 2071.75 bias-down signal requires being retraced.

There”s still no assurance of that being today. And it could be a couple of days otherwise.

A bounce testing 2069.00 tried to reverse momentum up. Its reaction down to 2066.75 tried to reverse momentum back down. If either were to gain traction, exacerbated by expiration, the balance of the session should trend relentlessly and considerably.

Yesterday”s drop retraced entirely. Better not stop here.

Delaying the recovery from 2095.00”s open is more significant than not repeating the pre-open probe under it. While that did not probe lower post-open — let alone retest the pre-open low — the base is suspect.

That didn”t prevent probing 3 points above the bias-up signal to 2104.75, despite being a no-bias environment. But that was the most cohesive any sponsorship has been all day.

Being no-bias trending, the 2101.50 bias-up signal should be retested as support (update: it just was). Often, the actual 1:20 print — which was 2100.00 — will be retested, too. 

Not holding 2100.00, if tested, could start to trigger a slide that fulfills potential to 2093.50 if not also 2088.00. Regardless of another dip, the complete recovery today has proved that yesterday”s late sellers were weak-handed.

Buyers entrenched.

The invalidated bias environment eventually touched 2105.50, but hasn”t really trended any higher than the actual invalidation surge. Ranging sideways has been supported by this afternoon”s 2102.00 bias-up signal.

And that”s above the morning”s highs. Exiting the bias environment above the morning”s highs essentially marginalizes sellers.

At least, if sellers try taking control, they should fail. And having formed an Expanding Triangle, there is potential for retracing down to 2099.50. That had better be only a retracement. Otherwise, patient sellers could allow a deeper pullback.

Meanwhile, last week”s confirmed breakout required an eventual higher close, which today is likely to fulfill. An actively bullish WedEX indicator is likely, too. We”ll discuss the character of its influence at today”s post-market Wrap.