Pre-close View

Closing higher would confirm.

The afternoon”s no-bias environment was triggered only ticks away from its 2089.25 bias-up signal. Often, that leaves an entire bias environment carte blanche to drop as low as its bias-down signal.

That wasn”t expected in this instance. The bullish template would not stray far from resistance while waiting for the bias environment restraint to lapse. In fact, the bias environment”s 2-point 2087.00-2089.00 range barely pulsated.

The bias environment”s exit did dip momentarily to 2085.75. The bullish template considers that to be the rubber band stretching, so it can snap back up.

Now the final hour has been entered probing higher to 2090.75. That”s a start, but it”s not enough. The bullish template all but requires trending up through the close — at least above yesterday”s  2092.75 final hour high, if not also above yesterday”s 2096.50 noon hour high. 

Ending any lower would remain vulnerable to resuming yesterday”s decline.

Blip-up blaps-down.

Friday factors make it nearly impossible to reverse trending that hasn”t yet reversed during the noon hour. Extending trending isn”t so assured.

The bias environment did probe this morning”s high by 2 ticks, piercing 2095.00. Its reaction down to 2092.25 was done when the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30.

That was recovered to another fresh high touching 2096.00. But the final hour was entered back under the 2095.00 prior high. Structurally, that”s potentially bearish. Maybe not very bearish, dealing on the small scale of this afternoon”s range, but not bullish. 

Rejecting a fresh that prints AFTER the bias environment exit is less bearish than rejecting a fresh high that printed DURING the bias environment. But, again, it”s not bullish. And its reaction down touched 2092.25.

Extending down should still be limited, if at all, due to Friday factors. But extending above 2095.00-2096.00 is now more difficult.

noN-bias environment is lapsing, leaving a vacuum.

This afternoon”s 2077.50 bias-up signal was touched within 3 minutes of 1:20 to invoke the grace period. It was still being touched at 1:30 to avoid triggering bias-up or no-bias.

The bias-up target wasn”t put into play, and the bias-up signal wasn”t required to hold. The bias parameters became irrelevant. It was a noN-bias.

Often, the tested bias signal will hold, anyway, during a non-bias environment. As did 2077.50. Then a surge probed above it as the bias environment began lapsing.

And now a fresh high is being probed up to 2080.50 at the final hour”s entry. The bias environment exit was still within the noon hour”s range. So, trending higher through the 3:10-3:20 window is needed to confirm a durable breakout is underway.

Reaction to the Minutes has probed lower and higher.

This morning”s rogue plunge exploited the open”s rally. That room was needed for absorbing a negative knee-jerk reaction to the afternoon”s FOMC Minutes. 

Exiting the bias environment above 2075.00 would have reinstated that position of strength, but it was only touched at 11:30. Entering the noon hour above 2077.50 would have worked, but it was also only touched by then.

So, FOMC Minutes wasn”t greeted from strength. Or, from weakness. It was greeted within a 2070.50-2075.00 range. The first break was lower to test 2066.00 support. Its reaction attacked the high up to 2079.50. And then dipped back into the range at 2071.00.

A short-squeeze could have formed from entering the final hour above the morning”s high. A bigger sell-off would have been triggered back under 2070.50. Beyond either end of the range through 3:10-3:20 could still be credible for extending aggressively in that direction — but only as credibly as the past two sessions” late drops.

The bias environment probed under the noon hour”s 2078.50-2082.00 range, but was exited back above its low. The final hour was entered under the noon hour”s range, but above the bias environment”s low.

The 3:10-3:20 timing window can be a tie breaker. 

Trending down under the bias environment”s 2076.75 low would be vulnerable to attacking session lows — which isn”t much, possibly just to 2073.00. Just trending up above 2081.00 by then would be likely to extend higher through the close.