Pre-close View

No-bias on top of no-bias — seems to be a message there.

As warned before the open, if the range wasn”t breaking immediately, then it probably wasn”t breaking at all. That wouldn”t prevent trending, and didn”t. This morning”s 2043.75 and 2054.25 bias signals have clearly defined the range.

At least there was volatility, and patterns with healthy targets within the range. Contrast that to ranging since noon, which may be described more accurately as comatose. Choppiness between 2048.00-2052.00 hasn”t formed any patterns, and no timing window has had any trending to even try gaining traction.

Now Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to speak at 3:45. 

Nothing terribly substantial need be uttered in order to trigger a knee-jerk reaction. But there is no predictability of a breakout”s initial direction from this pattern, or assurance of a breakout, at all — only the overwhelming likelihood that the first breakout attemp (if any) will return back into the range. 

And regardless of price action before the close, nothing about today”s session will be predictive.

FOMC reaction retraced entirely within one week.

It”s never the same. And it”s not a timing tool, nor is it context. It”s just interesting that any reaction to an FOMC policy statement tends to be retraced entirely within the first week.

And today, one hour short of last week”s statement that had triggered a 38-point rally to 2099.00, it was retraced entirely to its 2061.50 effective origin.

It has no meaning, other than to reinforce our reliance on timing windows being a reflection of human nature. Retracing it entirely is ultimately more important than its timing, as that”s what proves the move”s artificiality.

Speaking of which… All of this afternoon”s bias environment since triggering at 1:20 was spent “trending” up. Each upleg was resisted by the 2066.50 bias-down signal. And now the 2059.50 bias-down target has been met.

So long as 2063.00 and 2065.00 aren”t recovered — especially if not recovered by 3:20 — the drop”s momentum remains intact.

Sellers haven”t yet gained traction for today”s effort.

This afternoon”s bias environment was exited at 2:30 at 2087.50 under the noon hour”s 2091.25 low. Sellers would have gained traction by entering the final hour under 2087.50. But it was still being overlapped at 2088.00.

There”s still a proxy. 

Trending down to fresh lows through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would do what the final hour”s entry did not, and confirm that sellers are gaining traction. Otherwise, all of today”s selling pressure will have been satisfied. Gapping down tomorrow would be the only way to resume the decline.

The likelihood for having retraced last Wednesday afternoon”s FOMC reaction within one week is quickly approaching. Fulfilling outstanding upside objectives at 2102.00 and 2110.25 first would only make the downside attraction more difficult. Fulfilling the downside attraction first would make the upside more difficult.

Recovering today to close positive would make the upside likelier, first. And currently the 3:10-3:20 timing window is being entered on a bounce up to 2091.00.

Down for the lack of up?

Despite not probing any higher after 10:15 than before it, this morning”s 2110.25 bias-up target became “unfinished business above.” That”s because the bias environment wasn”t exited back under the 2104.50 bias-up signal, which had triggered cleanly.

Actually, 2104.50 was being probed, down to 2101.00, but not below the morning”s range when it mattered.

That pretty much defines the session so far. Sideways ranging, interim dips, but nothing that would give sellers traction. And no rallying. Fresh highs remain likely. Not necessarily today, but the door is open. 

Having chipped away so substantially at resistance for so long, the only requirement is that a fresh high should be very aggressive — steep and substantial. That aggressive character should be obvious above 2104.50 for optimal confirmation that a breakout is underway.

Late extension, meet no extension.

Bias-up is bias-up. Although the bias-up target was met before the bias timing window, it wasn”t exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal. That”s still a bias-up environment, but not with any higher target requiring a test.

That paragraph applies equally to this morning as to this afternoon. One separate point, which is different: This morning”s bias-up environment did eventually trend higher through its bias-up target. This afternoon”s bias-up environment did not.

Not trending higher this morning wouldn”t have had any specific consequence. Not trending higher this afternoon does, this being a session that has otherwise trended higher..

The 2106.25 bias-up target was met just before the 1:20 bias timing window, eventually reacting down to 2102.75. Just probing under 2104.00 already suggests that momentum is reversing down. The near-term objective is to test 2100.00 as support. 

There”s no requirement to trend down substantially, but late trending on Fridays rarely encounters counter-trend opposition. By the same token, expirations can be a wild card, so resuming the rally could tick higher relentlessly anyway.